12pm update - broken market

The main indexes are increasingly broken, with the Dow breaking the 200 day MA of 14727 just earlier. Regardless of any minor bounces..further declines seem likely until an agreement is reached. The recent key low of sp'1627 looks likely to be broken..and that will be the first lower low since Oct'2011.


sp'60min

Dow'weekly

Summary

Little bounces are to be expected..very hard to guess the timing/size, but what is clear...especially via the weekly charts...

we're broadly headed downward, at least until a provisional agreement is announced..and frankly..that now seems unlikely until the tail end of next week.

*keep in mind we have the FOMC minutes due at 2pm..and that could be an excuse for the market to briefly spike higher..before renewed selling.
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VIX update from Mr T.



VIX in the mid 20s..I guess is a given if you assume sp'1627 will be taken out in the coming days. A brief spike into the 30s...- which we've not seen since 2011..would make things pretty exciting next week.
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time for tea.

11am update - minor bounce still due

The main indexes remain weak, and the bulls are really struggling to get a bounce underway. A small jump to the low sp'1560s looks viable into the afternoon, but with daily/weekly momentum increasingly bearish, another weak close is likely. Metals and Oil remain weak.


sp'60min

Summary

A bounce does seem likely, but at most..maybe 0.5%. Overly risky to go long..merely a case of short the bounces..when they occur.

We're another day closer to the debt ceiling being hit..another day closer to the zombie apocalypse?
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*the momo stocks continue to see significant follow through from yesterday...

NFLX is a typical example...

The 50 day is failing. The real question is whether the 200 day MA is viable in any panic drop.
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SPECIAL note..

The Dow just broke the Aug' 14760 low..

Dow'weekly

This is the first lower low..in TWO YEARS. The Dow is suggesting the two year rally from Oct'2011..is over.


11.29am The market breaks into the sp'1640s..and VIX 21s.

The Dow remains the leader, warning of major downside viable in the days ahead.

Dow in the 14600s will be decisive enough to open the door to a severe (if brief) drop.

10am update - very weak open

The main indexes are very weak, and the opening gains lasted mere minutes. This market is starting to get really unsettled, and a further drop of 3-5% looks viable in the very near term. Metals and Oil are similarly weak. The VIX is a touch higher.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The current declines won't likely hold for long though, we're still due some kind of a small bounce into early afternoon.

Best guess, market jumps..7-10pts..only to sell lower into the close - after the FOMC minutes are released.


Mr Permabull is getting rattled!



If Oscar can acknowledge and recognise the QE is why this market has risen, I am still bemused why some of you out there are still in denial.

*the target he seems to be looking for is the June low of sp'1560, although I find it difficult to envision any initial break lower under 1600/1590.
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Notable fallers - the momo stocks, FB, TSLA, AMZN...they're all getting hit hard, even though market is trying to bounce again.


10.28am.. market trying (again) to put in a spike floor....

Regardless of any bounce...so many stocks out there with really ugly charts now...