Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 1662. Precious metals are jumping higher, Gold +18, with Oil 1%. Bulls should be aiming for a break >1669..which will open up the gap zone of 1680/85.
sp'60min
Summary
Jobs data: 169k, with a slight tick lower in the headline rate to 7.3%
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Broadly speaking, market has taken out another key level..and looks set to test the 1669 zone.
Lots to consider, I will strongly consider shorting the market around 1668/70..if we are there around 10/11am.
Update from Mr Permabull
Stay tuned!
9.28am...well, i'm VERY inclined to launch a reshort on 1668/70 in the next hour.
Lets see how the opening hour trades!
Black candle on the sp' hourly charts....hmm.
Opening FAIL..for the bulls, can't hold the 1660s.
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The equity indexes continue to battle higher, but the current wave from sp'1627 is probably just a wave 2/B. Those bears still on the sidelines, have a prime opportunity to re-short the main market, ahead of what should be a very strong down wave, back under sp'1600, with VIX in the low 20s.
sp'daily4b
sp'weekly7
Summary
Well, it was a bit of a dull day. There really isn't that much to add.
*To get the current weekly candle back to red, bears need a Friday close <sp'1650, that will be real difficult if we gap higher into the 1660s.
Bond yields
10yr, monthly'2
A break above 3% looks a given, and then a swift move to 3.25 or so. In the bigger picture though, rates even in the 4s or 5s are historically still very low.
If the economy of the 21st century can't cope with moderately higher bond yields - and general interest rates of 5%, then what does that tell you?
Looking ahead
Friday will obviously be all about the monthly jobs data. Market is expecting net job gains of 175k, with a static rate of 7.4%. Those aren't exactly bold targets, and they will probably be exceeded.
*there is no QE-pomo this Friday. Next sig' QE is not until next Thursday.
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Market looks set to make a play for the sp'1670 level, where there are some key aspects of resistance.
*If market gaps straight to the 1668/70 zone at the open, and offers an initial fail (look for black candles on the hourly index charts, and hollow red on the VIX hourly), I will seriously consider a short...otherwise..I'll wait until early next week.
As is generally the case for the bears, there really isn't any reason to be in a hurry to short, in what remains a nasty and twisted market of delusion.
The main indexes closed moderately higher for a third day, with the sp +2pts @ 1655. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed +0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, with the upper gap zone of 1680/85 a prime target for the bears to re-short the main market.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
A somewhat dull and tiresome day to be sitting on the sidelines. Bulls failed to show any significant follow through from yesterday, yet..neither did the bears show any real power on the downside.
Indeed, bears look utterly powerless again, with the VIX simply melting lower, seemingly headed for the low 15s.
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re: black count on sp' daily5
If the market starts putting in any daily closes in the 1690s, the count is dropped, otherwise, I'm still going to be clinging to renewed downside in mid/late September
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