sp'daily4b
sp'weekly7
Summary
Well, it was a bit of a dull day. There really isn't that much to add.
*To get the current weekly candle back to red, bears need a Friday close <sp'1650, that will be real difficult if we gap higher into the 1660s.
Bond yields
10yr, monthly'2
A break above 3% looks a given, and then a swift move to 3.25 or so. In the bigger picture though, rates even in the 4s or 5s are historically still very low.
If the economy of the 21st century can't cope with moderately higher bond yields - and general interest rates of 5%, then what does that tell you?
Looking ahead
Friday will obviously be all about the monthly jobs data. Market is expecting net job gains of 175k, with a static rate of 7.4%. Those aren't exactly bold targets, and they will probably be exceeded.
*there is no QE-pomo this Friday. Next sig' QE is not until next Thursday.
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Market looks set to make a play for the sp'1670 level, where there are some key aspects of resistance.
*If market gaps straight to the 1668/70 zone at the open, and offers an initial fail (look for black candles on the hourly index charts, and hollow red on the VIX hourly), I will seriously consider a short...otherwise..I'll wait until early next week.
As is generally the case for the bears, there really isn't any reason to be in a hurry to short, in what remains a nasty and twisted market of delusion.
Goodnight from London
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Video update from Walker
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