Good morning. Futures are flat, sp is set to open at 1639/40. Precious metals are weak, with Gold -$13. Oil is a touch lower. Bulls should be aiming for another break into the 1650s by late afternoon, when the Fed beige book is issued.
sp'60min
Summary
Well, it has to be said, it remains an unsteady market...within a broader down trend.
Bears can comfortably tolerate another move into the 1650s..even 1660s without doing too much damage to the bearish outlook. So long as no breaks (and daily closes) in the 1670s...things are looking good.
--
*I remain on the sidelines. I don't intend to get involved until after the next QE of early Thursday, although as ever...I will try to keep an open mind.
Certainty though, I won't be going long, whilst the bigger weekly charts are still pushing downward.
-
Notable mover: AAPL, +$10 (2%) to $499.
9.44am.. sure is a choppy start, but bias is to the upside.
Bears have real problems today..and early tomorrow...baring another war-talk comment from Kerry..or someone.
I remain seeking a re-short..from the sp'1660s..with VIX 15s.
The new month has started with moderate equity gains, but across the coming few weeks, general downside is still expected, to around the sp'1580/70s. The June low of 1560 now looks out of range, even if the market is spooked by a US attack upon Syria.
sp'weekly7
sp'daily4b
Summary
Most notable - from a bigger perspective, we have the second red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' charts..and that was despite net gains on the day.
In the previous Sept-Nov multi-week down cycle, the weekly 10MA proved to be key resistance, and that is currently 1668. Thus, I am seeking a 'price wall' in the upper 1668/72 zone this week.
Monthly charts (slowly) rolling over
We're only one day into September, but still, the monthly indicators are somewhat interesting to consider...
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Note, we have a second blue candle. The MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower for the second consecutive month. The big level to break is the rising 10MA...currently 1580. All things considered, it looks to be overly difficult for the bears to achieve a monthly break AND close below the 1580...at least until October.
Looking ahead
The main aspect for Wednesday will be the latest Fed 'beige book' (due 2pm). I have to guess the market will somehow manage to spin that as a positive, and will rally into late Wed..and early Thursday.
*the next significant QE is not until Thursday
--
Well, today was certainly a lot more dynamic than I had expected, and despite being overly cautious - and not 'bravely shorting the open', I am content with things.
I will be seeking a major index re-short, early Thursday, preferably in the sp'1660s, with VIX in the low 15s. I have to guess the market will see at least 'some' further weakness into the weekend.
-
late night extras...
Surprisingly (I thought his free updates had ended) another video update from Walker...
Keep in mind, one of his uber-doom scenarios is similar to my 'best bear case', with the low sp'1400s for Oct/Nov
sp'weekly9d
I should add, I no longer think 1560s are viable in the current multi-week down wave, and I am guessing sp'1580/70s at best, hence the now slanted neckline. That will still offer a very good H/S formation by early October though..so long as the 1709 high is not broken.
The main indexes closed moderately higher, with the sp +6.8pts to 1639.7, having earlier jumped to 1651. The near term trend looks moderately bullish, although within what is a broader down trend. Primary downside for September is currently in the 1570/80s.
sp'daily5
Summary
The daily candle is certainly something of a bullish failure. Yet, the 1627 low is holding, and the close on the border of the 1640s keeps the door open for a brief foray into the 1660s this Thursday.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a third day, and we're set to go positive cycle by the end of this week.
*I remain on the sidelines, seeking an index re-short in the sp'1660s, probably this Thursday morning.
--
a little more later...
