sp'weekly7
sp'daily4b
Summary
Most notable - from a bigger perspective, we have the second red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' charts..and that was despite net gains on the day.
In the previous Sept-Nov multi-week down cycle, the weekly 10MA proved to be key resistance, and that is currently 1668. Thus, I am seeking a 'price wall' in the upper 1668/72 zone this week.
Monthly charts (slowly) rolling over
We're only one day into September, but still, the monthly indicators are somewhat interesting to consider...
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Note, we have a second blue candle. The MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower for the second consecutive month. The big level to break is the rising 10MA...currently 1580. All things considered, it looks to be overly difficult for the bears to achieve a monthly break AND close below the 1580...at least until October.
Looking ahead
The main aspect for Wednesday will be the latest Fed 'beige book' (due 2pm). I have to guess the market will somehow manage to spin that as a positive, and will rally into late Wed..and early Thursday.
*the next significant QE is not until Thursday
--
Well, today was certainly a lot more dynamic than I had expected, and despite being overly cautious - and not 'bravely shorting the open', I am content with things.
I will be seeking a major index re-short, early Thursday, preferably in the sp'1660s, with VIX in the low 15s. I have to guess the market will see at least 'some' further weakness into the weekend.
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late night extras...
Surprisingly (I thought his free updates had ended) another video update from Walker...
Keep in mind, one of his uber-doom scenarios is similar to my 'best bear case', with the low sp'1400s for Oct/Nov
sp'weekly9d
I should add, I no longer think 1560s are viable in the current multi-week down wave, and I am guessing sp'1580/70s at best, hence the now slanted neckline. That will still offer a very good H/S formation by early October though..so long as the 1709 high is not broken.
Goodnight from London