Good morning. Futures are largely flat, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1632. Precious metals are higher, Gold +$15, with Oil up another 1.4%..WTIC is now in the 110/111s. Regardless of any morning bounce, the bulls are going to struggle into the long weekend.
sp'daily4 - progress to the 1570/60s
vix'daily3 - aiming for the 20s
Summary
RE: daily4 chart.
That is just a best guess, as based on the bigger weekly charts. I realise some are calling a fifth wave low, but considering the current trend..and the looming Syria issue, I find it hard to believe we won't broadly just fall all the way into the weekend.
*not much data today...with $3bn of QE. Interestingly, after this morning, there is no significant QE for rest of the week.
--
Well, I am long VIX, and generally seeking to be short the market until 1570/60s..with VIX in the low 20s.
--
Q Do you think traders will be wanting to go long across the long weekend? I don't think so either.
The market looks set for further declines in the coming days, not least pressured by the looming western-powers attack on Syria. Primary downside target remains the lower weekly bollinger, currently at sp'1563, and that should equate to VIX in the low 20s.
sp'weekly7
sp'weekly'9d - best 'doomer case'
Summary
Yesterday I ended with 'four blue candles'.
Today, I can note that the fourth candle has now turned a decisive bearish red, and the bigger downside target now looks viable in the coming week or two, perhaps even days.
Unquestionably, this market is very weak, and the momentum is firmly on the side of the bears. A return to the June lows look very viable, and that should be plenty enough to get the VIX into the lows 20s.
RE: 'doomer scenario' weekly'9d
For now, it remains a mere 'hope'...a 'dream'. I need to see a clear hit of the lower weekly bollinger before this scenario can be seriously considered. Yet so far..it does look good into next week...and if the target is hit, bears should be seeking a strong bounce, before putting in a critical lower high, somewhere around 1675.
Looking ahead
Wednesday has some housing data at 10am..along with the usual EIA Oil report.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $3bn, although as today showed, if the bears are strong enough..they can actually overcome the Benny bux fuel.
--
So..after a largely frustrating few days, I decided to get involved, and chase the market lower. I am LONG VIX, from the high 16s, and seeking an exit in the 20/21s..before the 3 day weekend.
*it was good to hear from some of you today, all comments...welcome.
The US market saw significant declines, with the sp -26pts @ 1630. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, saw rather severe falls of 2.6% and 2.4% respectively. Near term trend looks very weak, with a bigger downside target of sp'1570/60s viable within the coming days...along with VIX in the low 20s.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
The market opened around sp' 17pts lower, and despite some hours of trying, the bulls simply weren't able to form a solid floor.
The closing hour showed no hint of any broader turn to the upside. Despite some 'risk' of a bounce - the hourly index/VIX cycles are clearly pushing the limit, the market still looks very weak in the days ahead.
I will hold to the broader weekly charts, suggestive of sp'1570/60s..with VIX in the low 20s.
I have to note, I think the Syria situation is being grossly under-estimated by Mr Market. There is the real threat of military action over the coming three day holiday-weekend, and I find it hard to imagine the market rallying on 'missiles are flying'.
Some interesting comments from a guy in the casino pit...
--
*I am LONG VIX, seeking an exit in the 20/21s..sometime before the Friday close.
