Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are fractionally higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open around 1616. There is no significant QE today, so the market should (in theory) be slightly weaker. Bears should seek to at least keep <1626, and preferably a moderately red close.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Well,  lets see how this nonsense trades today.

I remain concerned that with relatively low (holiday) volume, the algo-bots will simply manage to melt everything slowly higher, in which case the 1626 high will be in danger of being broken.

As noted yesterday, I want to at least see the weekly 10MA hold, and that is currently @ 1627. Any daily close over that, and the bears (including yours truly) should start waving the flag flag).
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I can only hope that by the end of this week, we're trading comfortably back <1600, but right now, that is indeed..a mere 'hope'.


8.59am.. USD +0.5%, Euro about to lose the 1.30 level.

Indexes lost all gains, now looking a touch weak.

A daily close <1600 looks difficult, but today would be the day, whilst no sig' QE.

*awaiting factory orders data @ 10am.

Hanging in there

With the break into the mid sp'1620s, the bears started Q3 on a truly depressing note. Yet, the important weekly 10MA was still not breached, and like the multi-week down cycle of Sept-Nov'2012, the primary downside target remains the lower weekly bol', now @ 1506.


sp'weekly7 - near term 'bearish' outlook

Summary

I'm still inclined to hold to the original outlook.

Yet it is literally VERY borderline now. Any daily/weekly close above the weekly 10MA - currently @ 1627. would arguably be the big buy signal the bulls need.
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Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is still ticking lower - for the seventh week, and this is something those on the long side should keep in mind. In many ways, the only decent and safe long side trade is within 5-10pts of the lower weekly bollinger.


Looking ahead

In terms of econ-data for Tuesday, there is factory orders data, although I don't think the market is paying too much attention to anything ahead of the holiday.

*Tuesday has no significant QE, so the market will have slightly less pressure to the upside.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The market was in positive territory for the first trading day of Q3, with the sp' hitting a high of 1626 by late morning. Surprisingly, there was actually some latter day weakness, with the sp' closing +0.5% in the 1614s. Underlying MACD cycle is cruising comfortably higher.


sp'daily5

Summary

A very rough day for the bears to start the third quarter.

In many ways, does it merely portend for 'broad upside' across Q3 ? Considering that QE is continuing, its going to be damn difficult for the bears to take out the recent key low of sp'1560.

The bears should remain desperate for a daily close back <1600. If that is achieved later this week, then there is the 'small' possibility that 1560 will similarly be taken out, and the original weekly cycle target to hit by mid July.

*I remain short, will likely 'wave the white flag' on any break >1630. Until then, I am trying to be patient.
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a little more later