12pm update - bears struggling

Despite an early morning sell off, the sp' held the big 1600 level, and the bulls fought back pretty impressively. It remains a very borderline situation on the daily charts. A Friday close in the 1620s would do serious damage to the still moderately bearish weekly cycle.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly7

Summary

With the morning bounce, we're back to a blue candle, and that IS a real problem.

Need <1604 to get red.

If we can close <1600, I won't have too much concern about holding into Monday.
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time for lunch !


VIX update from Mr P.



back later

11am update - where we close, is what matters

The bulls have already launched a pretty fierce bounce from the opening low of sp'1601, and are no doubt relieved that 1600 held. VIX has lost all the earlier gains, back to flat. Bears should remain somewhat 'desperate' for a Friday close <1600.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Ignoring the minor 'noise', and keeping in mind the bigger daily charts.

Bears sorely need a close <1600 by the close, but even then, they will need strong downside on Monday, just to have a chance of breaking to the original weekly cycle target of 1530s by mid-July.
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How we close today is a tough one to call. Considering the weekly charts, I'm still inclined to the downside, but it sure doesn't look so great this hour.
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I suppose it could be worse, I could be long BBRY

URghhh

11.26am..well, indexes slightly green, and we're around 12pts from the gap-fill that seemed near impossible on Monday.


11.40am..they sure are battling it out at 1612/13.

10am update - increasing weakness into the afternoon

Hourly index/VIX charts are suggestive of a market rollover, with weakness increasing into the afternoon. With a weak PMI number, bulls look set to struggle to hold a daily close >sp'1600. VIX is higher, but so far, only by 3% in the mid 17s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Up channel on the sp' is BROKEN.

That is a good early victory for the bears, but those on the short-side should seek a break <1600 by 11am.

Lower bollinger on the hourly chart offers a Friday close of sp'1590.
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*I am heavy short the market, but would prefer an exit ahead of the weekend, even though I see stronger opportunity of weakness next Monday.


10am.. this is what I will be focusing on in the bigger picture...

The weekly candle has flipped back to red, and a close <1600 will open up a 50/100pt fall by mid July.

10.03am.. I'm looking for VIX 18.50 by early afternoon.


10.43am..urghh, bears just powerless again, no follow through, and we're almost back in the sp'1610s.

Worse case, hyper ramp to 1625/30, that'd be a brutal end to the week.
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