Friday, 28 June 2013

10am update - increasing weakness into the afternoon

Hourly index/VIX charts are suggestive of a market rollover, with weakness increasing into the afternoon. With a weak PMI number, bulls look set to struggle to hold a daily close >sp'1600. VIX is higher, but so far, only by 3% in the mid 17s.


sp'60min



vix'60min



Summary

Up channel on the sp' is BROKEN.

That is a good early victory for the bears, but those on the short-side should seek a break <1600 by 11am.

Lower bollinger on the hourly chart offers a Friday close of sp'1590.
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*I am heavy short the market, but would prefer an exit ahead of the weekend, even though I see stronger opportunity of weakness next Monday.


10am.. this is what I will be focusing on in the bigger picture...



The weekly candle has flipped back to red, and a close <1600 will open up a 50/100pt fall by mid July.

10.03am.. I'm looking for VIX 18.50 by early afternoon.


10.43am..urghh, bears just powerless again, no follow through, and we're almost back in the sp'1610s.

Worse case, hyper ramp to 1625/30, that'd be a brutal end to the week.
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