11am update - R2K..almost 1000

The Rus'2000 small cap is a mere 3pts away from the huge psy' level of 1000. Whether its hit this hour, tomorrow, or next month isn't important. What is the big unknown is how much further can it go this summer? If Trans'7000s, then R2K in the 1100s seems very viable.


R2K, daily

Summary

No reason to be short, even though hourly cycles remain suggestive of downside.

Oil has reversed, after minor 0.5% declines, its now 0.4% higher. Its another reason why its just overly risky to go short anything in the current market.

I certainly won't chase oil higher at these levels. There remains a moderate chance of downside for Oil, but I won't attempt that either. 

More than anything, bears should be in 'trading account preservation' mode.


UPDATE 11.27am  incredible strength out there everywhere now. Oil is starting to rip higher, with sp'1670s...and R2K @ 999.

10am update - hourly charts suggest weakness

The main indexes are due at least a minor pull back, but we're very likely only looking at 1%, if that much. VIX is 6% higher, but still in the low 13s. Oil is weak, -0.5%, and looks set for more significant declines later today, perhaps into early Tuesday.


sp'60min

Summary

A marginally interesting start to the week. Hourly index charts look like we could cycle lower across today, and perhaps into early Tuesday.

Bears should keep in mind, we have a mid-size POMO on Tuesday..the day when stocks only go up, remember?
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Oscar video..



Its no surprise that he is as bullish as ever, but then..he has been right for most of the last six years.
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Oil is lower, I may go long near the end of today... 33.60s would be the target, but that looks unlikely today.


USO'60min

back at 11am

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open around 1663. Precious metals are mixed, after very sharp overnight falls. Gold is currently +$8, whilst Silver is -30 cents. Oil is moderately weak, along with a slightly lower USD.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The bulls have very strong rising support @ sp'1650.

Considering there are two mid-size POMOs this Tuesday and Thursday, bears are going to have a real tough time just getting a single daily close in the 1640s.

Yes, we are really in overbought territory on a few cycles, but its generally going to be a rather quiet week, and that will allow the algo-bots to take control for much of the time.
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The only bearish possibility/feature of the week is the Bernanke's appearance in front of US congress this Wednesday. Its very possible Mr Market will use him as an excuse to decline, but as noted..we have a mid-size pomo of 2-3bn the very next day.
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*I am on the sidelines, will look to be long Oil in the days..and weeks ahead.

Good wishes for the week!