Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open around sp'1658. Yet again, the real action is in commodities, with the precious metals sharply lower, Gold -$16, Silver -15 cents. Oil is also a little weak. An array of econ-data is due across the next few hours.


sp'60min

Summary

Well, futures are indeed flat. The smaller 15/60min cycles are certainly suggestive that we'll slip lower this morning. Whether that last into the afternoon is too difficult to say.

Tomorrow is opex, and its also a very big pomo of 5bn.
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*I seek to go long Oil again, later this morning.

Update from Mr Permabull...



As ever..updates across the day
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8.33am... econ-data not pleasing the market. Sp -5pts, 1653

USO is -11 @ 33.50.. I think it might get to the 33.20s again by 11am, which is where I will be looking to pick it up.

Transports, 700pts to go

Another day higher for the US equity market, and almost another full percent higher for the old leader - the Transportation index. We're now in the 6500s, a mere 700pts shy of my primary target - 7200s. The time frame remains August, and we're currently ahead of schedule.


Trans'weekly3', rainbow

R2K, weekly

Summary

So..another new set of index highs for the US markets. No doubt a lot of bears are now upgrading their near term upside targets to the low sp'1700s.

I suppose we might get stuck in the low/mid sp'1700s, but I'm going to stick to the Transports as my guide post. I have to believe Trans will break into the low 7000s before the current hyper wave is done, and for me, trans 7200s would equate to sp'1800s.

Even then, baring an end to QE, I can't see downside of more than 5-7% in the next wave - which might still be a sub wave of a relentless larger wave'3 (see monthly hyper-bullish chart from yesterday nights closing post).


Oil - still seeking upside.

I went long Oil (via USO) this morning, that worked out rather well after just a few hours, and I was stopped out.

I look to go long again sometime on Thursday - ahead of the big Friday POMO. I suppose the USO 33.20/10s are possible early tomorrow, but it will probably need some equity weakness - with the sp in the 1640s for that.


Looking ahead

There is another little array of econ-data for the market to deal with tomorrow. The usual jobs data, some housing, CPI, and also Phil' Fed survey.  Perhaps some of it will be enough to knock the market 0.5 to 0.75% lower by late morning...before the algo-bots melt it all back upward.

That's all for today...

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately higher, lead by the Transports, with gains of 0.8%. The sp' close of 1658 was another strong reminder of the underlying strength in this QE-fuelled market. Near term trend looks extended, but there is strong rising support, barely 1% lower.


R2K

SP

Trans

Summary

Another trading day that many bears will want to forget. There were a great many out there with ceiling targets in the sp'1640/50 area, and those ALL got taken out today with the brief break into the 1660s.

We are clearly in an accelerating up channel, lead by the transports. Weekly tranny chart suggest the low 7000s, which is a good 10% higher, and that would equate to sp'1800s by late summer.

Trading volume remains light, but since when did that matter? There is big QE-pomo this coming Friday, which also happens to be opex. Bears beware!

A little more later...