Thursday 16 May 2013

Transports, 700pts to go

Another day higher for the US equity market, and almost another full percent higher for the old leader - the Transportation index. We're now in the 6500s, a mere 700pts shy of my primary target - 7200s. The time frame remains August, and we're currently ahead of schedule.


Trans'weekly3', rainbow


R2K, weekly


Summary

So..another new set of index highs for the US markets. No doubt a lot of bears are now upgrading their near term upside targets to the low sp'1700s.

I suppose we might get stuck in the low/mid sp'1700s, but I'm going to stick to the Transports as my guide post. I have to believe Trans will break into the low 7000s before the current hyper wave is done, and for me, trans 7200s would equate to sp'1800s.

Even then, baring an end to QE, I can't see downside of more than 5-7% in the next wave - which might still be a sub wave of a relentless larger wave'3 (see monthly hyper-bullish chart from yesterday nights closing post).


Oil - still seeking upside.

I went long Oil (via USO) this morning, that worked out rather well after just a few hours, and I was stopped out.


I look to go long again sometime on Thursday - ahead of the big Friday POMO. I suppose the USO 33.20/10s are possible early tomorrow, but it will probably need some equity weakness - with the sp in the 1640s for that.


Looking ahead

There is another little array of econ-data for the market to deal with tomorrow. The usual jobs data, some housing, CPI, and also Phil' Fed survey.  Perhaps some of it will be enough to knock the market 0.5 to 0.75% lower by late morning...before the algo-bots melt it all back upward.

That's all for today...

Goodnight from London