Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1620. Precious metals are weak, with silver -1%. Oil is similarly moderately weak. USD is also a touch weak, -0.2% @ 82.17. There remains the persistent issue of algo-bot melt.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So, we're set to open a little higher. With very little to move the market, there is more likelihood of upside..than downside, and that also applies to the rest of the week.

*I will be away this morning. Next post probably at 1pm.
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In the meantime, two videos...

First...Oscar, who is side-stepping the market today.




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Second, some macro-economics, from Mr Long and Mr Smith



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as noted...I will probably be back around lunch time

Melting higher across the summer?

The bears critically failed to break the market decisively lower last week. That failure has now resulted in the weekly charts going back to bullish. The transports are suggestive of the low 7000s this summer, which would equate to sp'1800s, with VIX <10.


sp'weekly2, rainbow

trans'weekly3, rainbow, outlook/count

Summary

Today's gains were enough to provide initial green candles for the SP'500 and Transports weekly charts. The transports is indeed leading the way higher, and that price action from mid-March to last week, sure looks like a wave'2/B. Regardless of how you want to label/count it, the trend is clearly up.

The 7000s look a very viable target, and if that is correct, its not too bold to extrapolate what that might mean for the other indexes. The sp'1800s look very viable, and that is barely 10% higher from where we currently are.


What am I doing?

Having bailed on two major positions last Friday, I'm somewhat adverse to doing anything for at least a few more days. However, I do have eyes for going Long Oil, and short Silver. Current price levels for either are not attractive though, so I'm just sitting back.


Looking ahead

There really isn't anything much at all this week. There is consumer credit tomorrow at 3pm, but really, the main market probably won't even care.

This market is in 100% algo-bot melt mode...bears beware.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

With no news, and very little trading volume, we're back to a market where the HFT algo-bots are in total control. The default result is the usual inexorably slow melt upward. Most indexes closed moderately higher, although the Transports saw rather strong gains of 1.3%.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

More than anything, I think the breakout on the Transports remains the most important one for traders to keep in mind. The immediate trend remains to the upside, and there is absolutely no sign of a turn/levelling phase.
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Lets be clear, bears had their chance to break lower last week, and all they could muster was a Wednesday decline of 1% for the headline indexes. The Thursday recovery, and strong gains on Friday are enough to convince me that any hope of downside should be dismissed.

With yet another daily close above the recent sp' high of 1597, those bears still in short positions, should be at least 'concerned', if not already making a run for the exit.

It could be a VERY long summer of market algo-bot melt, and if that's the case, then anyone thinking of shorting the broader market should arguably just turn off their screen and check back in late August.

a little more later...