12pm update - market switches back to invincible mode

Market seems to have switched on invincible mode this morning. After a recessionary PMI number, the indexes are back to green, and we're breaking higher. Nasdaq is climbing to new post 2009 highs, lead by AAPL +2% in the $440s. Oil/metals remain somewhat weak.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I think many are getting real tired of this.
-

VIX can't even hold the 14s, and we have a market that could close in the sp'1600s.


..meanwhile..another sign of our healthy US algo-bot market....

Symantec..1min

Great huh, a truck load of stops just got hit..and then..BOOM, right back up.

see ZH for further talk on 'flash crash of the day.

11am update - bears still weak

After some weakness resulting from the recessionary PMI number, market is again back in the 1590s..and those bull maniacs are still in control. VIX is finding it too difficult just to hold the 14s. Precious metals and Oil both moderately weak, and look toppy on the larger time frame.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

A sub'50 PMI number, and the market could yet close higher.

But then..every day is a POMO day, with those algo-bots - low volume permitting, able to melt everything upward.

It remains a very frustrating market.

What is absolutely clear, bears can't be the least bit confident until we're back in those sp'1560s, which is a good 1.5% lower..and that sure doesn't seem likely today..or even tomorrow.

10am update - recessionary PMI data

Market is still holding together rather strongly, despite a recessionary Chicago PMI number of 49 - the first sub'50 since 2009. VIX has broken into the 14s, and there is a little weakness in the oil market. Generally though, if the trading volume remains low, algo bots could still melt it back upward later in the day.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So...bears get a somewhat surprisingly recessionary key PMI number under 50.

But hey, the FOMC are meeting today, so, they are now even less likely to suggest QE will ever end..and that is clearly what the market wants to hear.

Either way, its still not looking good for those in bear land.

Need sp'1560s..to have any sign that the current wave from November is over.
--

VIX daily MACD cycle is starting to tick back up.

Equity bears need VIX in the 15s to really give a clear signal.

*there is no turn on the daily index charts yet, and probably another 2-3 days.
 -

10.08am We now have a clear break of the channel on the hourly charts..and VIX is making a run for it. Once again, the last short-stop line is sp'1597 - the April'11 high.


10.30am... Daily MACD turns on VIX, SP,      Oil looks weak.

Its NOT conclusive yet..but the signs are out there..how we close the day..and month..will be important.