Tuesday 30 April 2013

10am update - recessionary PMI data

Market is still holding together rather strongly, despite a recessionary Chicago PMI number of 49 - the first sub'50 since 2009. VIX has broken into the 14s, and there is a little weakness in the oil market. Generally though, if the trading volume remains low, algo bots could still melt it back upward later in the day.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

So...bears get a somewhat surprisingly recessionary key PMI number under 50.

But hey, the FOMC are meeting today, so, they are now even less likely to suggest QE will ever end..and that is clearly what the market wants to hear.

Either way, its still not looking good for those in bear land.

Need sp'1560s..to have any sign that the current wave from November is over.
--

VIX daily MACD cycle is starting to tick back up.


Equity bears need VIX in the 15s to really give a clear signal.

*there is no turn on the daily index charts yet, and probably another 2-3 days.
 -

10.08am We now have a clear break of the channel on the hourly charts..and VIX is making a run for it. Once again, the last short-stop line is sp'1597 - the April'11 high.


10.30am... Daily MACD turns on VIX, SP,      Oil looks weak.

Its NOT conclusive yet..but the signs are out there..how we close the day..and month..will be important.