Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw some moderate swings in the early morning, but closed moderately higher. The sp' close of 1562 is barely 10pts away from a target right shoulder, of what might be a mini H/S formation, within a (possible) much larger H/S. Bears need to keep market <1575.


sp'daily5

Summary

Today was broadly as expected, with continued upside from the Thursday afternoon low of sp'1536. A move into the low 1570s looks relatively easy, the only issue is whether we are setting up a mini H/S formation.

Bears really need to keep prices <1575. Any daily close in the upper 1570s..or higher, would mean the above scenario needs to be thrown out.

Considering the bigger picture, I would say there is at least a 60/70% probability of the sp' failing in the 1570s, with a rather 'swift and fierce' move to the 1490/80s - within 5-7 trading days.

Worse case for the bears, would be a choppy 1-2 weeks, but putting in a lower high, <1597. What I can't envision - after the recent strong downside action, are new index highs. That now seems extremely unlikely.

a little more later...

Volatility still retracing lower

It was a pretty messy morning for the VIX, opening a touch lower, but then seeing a minor snap higher to 16, but as expected, the market battled back to the upside. VIX closed -3.9% @ 14.39. It would seem VIX 13s are viable Tuesday, before an attempt to break 20 this Friday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today went broadly as expected, especially for the VIX.

With the indexes faking out the bears in mid-morning, the VIX was teasingly spiking higher to 16.00..only to then fail..and slipping moderately net lower by the close.

Best guess remains, VIX 13s 'sometime' Tuesday, along with sp'1570s.
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I hold to my mid-term outlook, which is seeking a VIX daily - and possibly weekly close above the key 20 threshold. If the latter is achieved, then the VIX upper 20s..even 30s are viable in late May.

More later..on the indexes.

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed moderately higher, after what was a pretty choppy morning. Precious metals and Oil held significant gains, the fractionally lower USD no doubt helped to maintain upside momentum. Near term target remains sp'1570s, with VIX briefly in the 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

I'm holding to the original outlook from last week.

A wave'2 ABC bounce, which now looks to conclude tomorrow - after 3 trading days, relative to wave'1 down which took 5-6 days (depending on how you like to count it).

What is clear, those looking for a H/S formation need to see NO daily closes >1575.
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*I remain on the sidelines, and will be on standby from the Tuesday open for a major re-short.

Its possible we might gap into the mid-1570s, but - like today, put in a fail, with black candles on the hourly index charts.

We shall see.
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The usual bits and pieces to wrap up the day, across the evening.