Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw some moderate swings in the early morning, but closed moderately higher. The sp' close of 1562 is barely 10pts away from a target right shoulder, of what might be a mini H/S formation, within a (possible) much larger H/S. Bears need to keep market <1575.


sp'daily5

Summary

Today was broadly as expected, with continued upside from the Thursday afternoon low of sp'1536. A move into the low 1570s looks relatively easy, the only issue is whether we are setting up a mini H/S formation.

Bears really need to keep prices <1575. Any daily close in the upper 1570s..or higher, would mean the above scenario needs to be thrown out.

Considering the bigger picture, I would say there is at least a 60/70% probability of the sp' failing in the 1570s, with a rather 'swift and fierce' move to the 1490/80s - within 5-7 trading days.

Worse case for the bears, would be a choppy 1-2 weeks, but putting in a lower high, <1597. What I can't envision - after the recent strong downside action, are new index highs. That now seems extremely unlikely.

a little more later...