12pm update - C wave underway ?

Mr Market is battling back, and a moderate rally into the close looks very viable. Those bears getting overly excited about those earlier declines could be real annoyed by early Tuesday. Metals and oil are holding reasonable gains, VIX is cooling down, set to go red.


sp'60min

Summary

I've added a channel on the hourly chart, maybe that will be useful for Wed, when bears really should be seeking some kind of initial weakness.

First obvious downside target is a break <1536, which is certainly viable by Friday, even if we are in the 1570s tomorrow.

*re: Friday GDP. I've read the story on some 'intangibles' of 500bn to be added to GDP. I think its due to be added for Q2 data in July,  Regardless, the market should start to re-price in the underlying weakness out there.


VIX update, from Mr T.



I think the buyer of the 'call stupid' was..stupid for buying a day early. They could probably get the VIX in the 14s tomorrow.

The patient bear..is (usually) a less stupid bear.

11am update - B wave...probably

A somewhat choppy start to the week, but it does seem likely that we're just seeing a small B wave play out - as part of a wave'2 ABC bounce. Best guess remains that it will complete by late Tuesday. Very obvious short-stop levels are the low 1570s or 1597.


sp'60min

Summary

Hard to know if this B' wave is already done. Might be.

What I don't expect is a any consistant downside, certainly not taking out the recent 1536 low.
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Seeking upside into late tomorrow...sp'1570s, with VIX 14s.
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I still like Oil as a short for overnight Tuesday...

USO 60min

Seeking the low 32s late tomorrow.

10am update - opening gains fail

Market opened a little higher, but we're seeing those gains fail, with the indexes now red. Precious metals and Oil are still higher, but even they are well below their pre-market highs. Seeking renewed strength late in the day, with sp'1570s by late Tuesday.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Looks like an A' wave is done. B could take rest of today, not that I expect a close <1550. With a C wave complete by late Tuesday. I suppose it could drag into early Wednesday.
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VIX was the tell at the open, whilst the indexes opened higher, VIX was only a fraction lower, rather than a typical -5% or so.

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*I remain sitting back until Tuesday.

UPDATE 10.15am.. a little flash lower in the GOOG.

There were trades going through at those levels...ugly for the ones who kicked, only to see it jump back up.

10.43am..baring a break of the 1536 low, we're still headed for those 1570s.

Bears..need to remain patient and not get over excited what is probably a B' wave lower.