1pm update - VIX wants to break higher

Whether sp'1597 was the near term high, we clearly won't know for some days..if not weeks. Meanwhile the VIX is now outside of its 4 day down channel. Equity bears should be seeking a close (more likely tomorrow) above multiple hourly MA resistance @ 13.50.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The best that bears can hope for today is a moderate red close in the indexes, and a VIX in the mid 13s. All things considered, that'd be a major achievement.

*Oil remains weak, which is pretty bad considering the USD is -0.5%
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VIX update.. from Mr T.


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Looks like the big money are buying some May protection, and will build such positions into next week.

1.05pm... IWM, back at the highs...

Clearly, there is NO turn yet on the daily charts, and in fact,  even if we get stuck here, we won't see a decisive MACD turn until middle of next week.


1.28pm..well, at the current rate, the sp'  will see a bearish cross on the hourly chart late tomorrow morning.

So, bears have a chance at closing the week <1580..but its going to be..difficult whilst daily cycles still pushing upward.

12pm update - are we done @ 1597.35 ?

This mornings follow through is again particularly discouraging to the bears, but for those watching the daily cycles..we might be 'there'. However, until we take out the sp'1538 low...bears really can't get excited. USD remains weak..not that this is helping a particular weak Oil.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

USO, daily2

Summary

First, I want to highlight a comment from poster 'Christian Gustafson'

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In 2007, the weekly top Bollinger was at 1580; we topped 4 pts below it at 1576.This week, Google charts shows the top Bollinger @1601. We just reversed at 1597.35, again 4 pts below'
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I certainly also place a lot of emphasis on the standard Bollinger bands - especially the weekly and monthly ones.

Did we just see a hugely important top? As always..it might take a VERY considerable time to be sure..

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VIX looks set to snap higher in the next hour or two. A close in the 13s would be useful.

Oil is an interesting spot of weakness..and along with Copper..I'm still inclined for the deflationary outlook.

No doubt the QE-POMO is keeping things together to a large extent.
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*its certainly pleasing to see USO start to cliff fall. ;)

time for lunch!
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UPDATE 12.30pm...VIX is outside of the down channel...bears need a close >13.50..that seems possible, if not today, then tomorrow.

11am update - hourly 10MA remains first support

Market continues to battle upward, and we're in now a mere 8pts from hitting the big psy' level sp'1600. Meanwhile, USD remains weak, which is probably helping precious metals a little, although Oil is one particular weak spot of the market so far.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The hourly 10MA is @ 1584..and rising. By the end of today it will be 1591.

Bears need to break back below that today, or the chances of closing back in the 1570s tomorrow look very slim.

*I remain short USO, and looking to exit before the Friday close in the low 33s.


11.05am..well, we're at the top of the sp' wedge on the weekly chart.....yet the bulls can aim for the upper bol which is now @ 1613 ! urghh

This is the kind of 'extra nonsense' I was fearing yesterday, hence my switch from short equities..to short Oil. So far..the Oil is actually still down.

Despite the continued gains...the Trans, R2K ..still below their recent March highs.

11.29am.... sp'1597...and still rising. The big 1600s imminent. Incredible.....

I can only imagine how pleased the Bernanke must be. Clearly, the 'wealth effect' will trickle down into the wider US economy.

But hey..since when do we need jobs growth anyway?

11.42am...VIX is getting VERY close to snapping higher..breaking the down channel..and making the first move up.
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