10am update - a little weakness due

Good morning. On any basis we're due some form of minor down cycle. More than likely though, bulls will comfortably hold above the old historic high of 1576. VIX is a touch higher, Oil is moderately lower, USD is lower, with the precious metals a touch higher.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

As I noted last night, more than anything..those bears seeking a multi-week down cycle - which STILL includes yours truly, MUST be seeking a sp' weekly close back under 1580.

That is certainly possible, we're only talking about 0.5% lower.
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*I remain short USO, seeking an exit in the low 33s.

USO'60min

USO actually looks like a rather large H/S formation on both the hourly and daily charts. A break below the floor of 32.90s would bode bearish for the broader market.
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UPDATE 10.13am...lets see if we get that VIX gap-fill today, in the 11.70/60s..

Market hits 1591....Metals trying to break higher...gold +8...hmm

Last gasp..or big new up wave?

With the SP' breaking through the Oct'2007 high, and closing comfortably in the upper 1580s, the issue now is whether this is a last gasp little wave higher, or the start of something much more significant. Weekly charts for the Dow, SP, and Nasdaq, are back to a rather disturbingly bullish outlook.


sp'weekly

sp'weekly2, rainbow

sp'daily3 - fib levels

Summary

So...yet another bad day for the bears, with the Friday morning low of sp'1539 now looking a very long way down.

Unquestionably, the break - and daily close, above the old high of 1576 is important to recognise. Bears should arguably now sit back, at least until early next week, and then reassess.

The weekly'2 (rainbow) chart flipped to a green candle when the SP' broke 1580/81 this morning, and if it closes the week with a green candle, that's a very serious problem for those who follow these Elder Impulse charts.

*I checked all the six main indexes...
The Dow, SP, and Nasdaq Comp' are flashing green, whilst the R2K, Trans, and NYSE Comp' are still blue.

I suppose it could be just a blow off/mega short-stop run on the three 'headline' indexes, with the other indexes telling the 'real story'. We shall see.

Those bears who still believe we are forming a top, MUST be seeking a Friday close in the 1570s..or lower, and get those candles back to blue!


Meanwhile..in Fib' land

I'm still keeping a count on the Fib' chart, but its something I am now very uncertain of. Just how should we count this post November series of little waves higher? What is really bizarre, is just how far down the sp'1480s now look!

Just how are we going to be trading down <sp'1500 this spring, whilst the QE-POMO is continuing?

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Regardless, the current trend IS up in the immediate term, and until we're under that key (March'19) low of sp'1538, the bears have nothing to be pleased about.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed significantly higher, lead by the Transports and R2K which are playing catchup, both closed 1.8% higher - although still below their March highs. Near term trend looks like the current up cycle will last into next week. VIX again confirmed the utter complacency.


IWM

SP

Trans

Summary

'Urghh'

That is probably all that needs to be said about today.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on all the indexes ticked up for a fourth day, and is set to go positive cycle on all indexes by this Friday. There is now little reason to believe that the current momentum will be able to turn back lower within the next 3-4 days.

With new highs for the SP - and other indexes pushing back upward, bears arguably should step aside, and wait at least until next week.

a little more later...