Good morning. Futures are marginally higher, the sp +3pts or so, we're set to open around 1554/55. The dollar is fractionally higher, along with Oil. Gold is -$6, Silver is flat. The sp'1570s still seem viable in the very near term.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
There is lots of econ-data this morning, so Mr Market will have all the excuses it needs to pick a direction..and run with it.
*in the previous 3 cycle peaks, we've seen sideways chop usually for 3-6 weeks, and we're only at week 2/3, depending on how you look at it.
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*I'm still long via SLV, but am looking to drop that today. Silver itself remains in an incredibly tight trading range. It could burst a little higher, only to get stuck at key resistance, and then collapse. A few daily closes >30/31 though, and 38/40 opens up...rather fast.
SLV, daily2
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meanwhile, USO - which I've also been meddling in (long) lately is still battling higher. I don't expect it to be able to break/hold over the mid 34s.
USO, daily2
Indeed, next week, I will look to be shorting USO down into April/May.
A choppy day to begin a shortened week, with the main indexes closing moderately lower. Yet, the daily charts still threaten of further upside into the sp'1570s, not least whilst the more important weekly/monthly cycles are still very much on the bullish side.
sp'daily7 - fib levels
sp'weekly2, rainbow
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Summary
So, today was a bit of a choppy mess, and I'm sure many are already longing for the extended Easter weekend. I am one of them.
As someone who is seeking to re-short the indexes and start picking up VIX call blocks, I'm resigned to waiting until next week. As has been the case in the past three years, April/May is often a good place to pick up short positions for a multi-week down cycle.
Bigger picture outlook
In terms of the next few months, I'm still seeking a multi-week down cycle, primary target is somewhere in the 1490/70 area. That's not exactly the most exciting scale (5-7%) of drop, but its possible we might fall to the lower bollinger band (weekly cycle)...which by early May will probably be in the 1425/50 area.
I will note that the MACD (green bar histogram) on the weekly charts is now looking very good for the bears. We have a lower secondary tower/wave, and we ARE rolling over. We should see a close below the important 10MA by mid April.
Looking ahead
We have plenty of econ-data tomorrow morning, not least the Durable Goods Orders data. Keep in mind that Thursday will be key with GDP and PMI data.
Certainly, there is potential for further index declines this week, but I would be somewhat surprised if we go below the recent 1538 low. There remains very strong rising support on the sp in the 1520/25 area. I just can't see that being broken this side of the Easter break, even if some of the econ-data comes in way below market expectations.
In my view...the bears would be better to just sit this week out..and see where we're at next Monday..April 1'st.
Goodnight from London
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Bonus video, from Biderman. He has some interesting ideas on how April might play out, in relation to money flow and tax year issues.
The US indexes saw a choppy Monday. Opening minor gains - which saw the SP' fractionally break the recent 1563 high failed to hold, after some EU minister said something (or not)..and the market slipped, closing off the lows. Near term trend looks messy, sp'1570s..still viable.
IWM
SP'daily5
Trans
Summary
Well, that's one day complete in this short four day week. I think today was a real mind-frak for many traders.
With opening gains, Mr Market no doubt short-stopped a lot of bears out in the 1560/64 zone, only for the market to reverse.
Yet, with the Dow -100pts or so, then we saw a re-statement of what the EU minister had supposedly said, and the market ramps back, kicking out those bears who were shorting into the declines.
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It remains a nasty market for those on the bearish side, one where the primary trend - weekly/monthly cycles, is still UP.
I don't see any point in shorting this market ahead of the 3 day Easter weekend, and besides, I still think there is a very significant chance of the market breaking into the 1570s before this November-March wave completes.
