Thursday, 7 March 2013

10am update - morning chop

Good morning. Opening index gains, but market is still looking a little tired. Its quite likely we'll just churn sideways today...as everyone waits for the Fridays jobs data. I'd have to guess we have a very significant chance of trading in the sp'1560s tomorrow.


sp'daily5



vix'daily3


Summary

A choppy start to the day.

Most notable so far, the USD is moderately lower.  Its due a 1-2 week down cycle, and that would really help prop' up the market into late March.
--

*I exited SLV and USO at the open (both gains)..and seeking to go long again later in the day.
--


Still a green rainbow

Regardless of how you might like to count the waves across the last few months, or even years, we unquestionably remain within an outright bullish trend. The weekly charts are now back to green, and the monthly is now in its third consecutive green month.


sp'weekly2, rainbow



sp'monthly3, rainbow


Summary

Sometimes simple is best..and that's partly why I will keep highlighting these 'rainbow' charts, that make use of the 'Elder Impulse System'.

Despite the 'hopes' of the doomer bears - not least myself, the primary trend has been upward for the past four years.

Perhaps even worse, - and to me, what remains remarkable, is that we've not had a decent multi-month down cycle since late summer 2011 Despite all of the underlying problems..and endless ticking econ-time bombs, the market has been holding itself together.

No doubt, its largely a result of the Fed, the HFT algo-bots, and the delusion in the mainstream that 'everything is gonna be okay'.


A somewhat disturbing thought to end the night....

This 'grand' multi-year up trend will of course eventually conclude, but I'm really starting to believe the cycle peak won't be for another 2-3 years, which at the current general rate of up trend, would mean we won't max out until around sp'2500/2750 in early 2016.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed mostly a little higher. The 'old leader' - Transports, was the exception, slipping  0.4% lower, but the underlying trend is still broadly higher. The immediate issue now for all indexes is whether the current up cycle is indeed a small fifth wave higher.


IWM



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

So..a bit of a choppy day, and only minor gains by the close. Hourly charts are suggestive of a bull flag, with upside to 1550/60s.

--

This remains the most bearish count I have in the near term.

sp'daily4





 I suppose the bigger count (red) could easily be wrong. Yet, the small count does look rather good.

On any basis, we're probably in a fifth 'minor' wave higher - as part of a bigger wave that began last November @ sp'1343. 


What is clear, a break of that channel..offers downside to a reasonable target of 1425/00.

I believe its something to seriously consider, not least once we are trading in the 1550/60s across the next 3-5 days.

A little more later