Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed mostly a little higher. The 'old leader' - Transports, was the exception, slipping  0.4% lower, but the underlying trend is still broadly higher. The immediate issue now for all indexes is whether the current up cycle is indeed a small fifth wave higher.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

So..a bit of a choppy day, and only minor gains by the close. Hourly charts are suggestive of a bull flag, with upside to 1550/60s.

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This remains the most bearish count I have in the near term.

sp'daily4

 I suppose the bigger count (red) could easily be wrong. Yet, the small count does look rather good.

On any basis, we're probably in a fifth 'minor' wave higher - as part of a bigger wave that began last November @ sp'1343. 


What is clear, a break of that channel..offers downside to a reasonable target of 1425/00.

I believe its something to seriously consider, not least once we are trading in the 1550/60s across the next 3-5 days.

A little more later

Volatility a touch higher

With the indexes largely trading sideways - after Tuesdays strong gains, the VIX did much the same. With some minor chop in the closing hour, the VIX closed +0.4%  @ 13.53. Near term trend looks weak, the only issue is whether the previous low of 12.08 will be broken.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Importantly, the daily MACD cycle has now seen a bearish cross, and we're back to a negative cycle.

We could trundle/melt lower for some days, if not a few weeks.

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When the sp' is trading around the 1555/65 level, it will be interesting to see just how low the VIX gets. Right now, a new low <12.08 looks somewhat 'difficult'.

The key VIX 20 threshold looks an awful long way up. Even a Dow -260pt day still failed to get the VIX to what used to be relatively typical volatility level.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

A quiet day in market land. We melted higher..but the minor gains started to fade into the close. The hourly index charts are offering a pretty good bull flag, with upside into the 1550/60s by the Friday close. The big issue remains, how big a down cycle will we get in the weeks/months ahead?


sp'60min

Summary

A bit of minor chop to conclude Wednesday. Not much to add really, aside that I guess we'll be breaking above that bull flag..either late tomorrow..or more likely on Friday.

A weekly close in the 1560s..would be pretty fierce way to end the first full trading week of March.
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*I holding long overnight, via Silver.and Oil. Both look okay for a few days..and maybe a few weeks.
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more later...on the usual stuff