12pm update - minor chop

The moves remain very minor, and that is even more annoying than the rally itself. With the Fed due at 2.15pm, Mr Market will likely remain in a holding pattern. A stupid (brief) spike to the up..or downside is likely..and then we'll see the true direction that the words of the Bernanke have on this twisted and mis-priced casino.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

You can see that the VIX is putting in higher highs..and higher lows.. but really, even the 15/16s look kinda difficult to hit.

All those seeking a retracement....

sp'60min, fibs

Yet, with the Fed later today, we could spike upward, and  then all those fib' levels will need to be pushed higher  yet again.

VIX, video..



back at 2pm
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UPDATE 1pm.   another little up cycle on the indexes, with some even going green again.

sp'5min

Bears should look to taking out the sp'1498 low from yesterday, with VIX in the mid 14s.

11am update - VIX breaking higher

We're seeing a little index weakness, but more interesting is the VIX, which has finally broken the 14 threshold. VIX 14 is of course still a bizarrely low level. Metals are strongly higher today, Gold +$18, with the dollar moderately lower.


vix'daily3

sp'daily5

Summary

Well, its still nothing even moderately decisive. Bears need a close <1500, and really in the low 1490s to give any clarity that a retracement is underway.

If the Fed please the market..then we could just as easily close higher..yet again.

*transports and IWM which were flat yesterday are now likely to be the ones leading lower..so...eyes to them!
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With the Fed later this afternoon, it could get a little wild.

Based on the last 4 trading weeks, this mornings minor declines..will reverse..and we'll close +5-7pts.. urghh.

10am update - its a Fed day

Besides the ADP and GDP data, its important to keep in mind that today is a Fed day. The FOMC will issue a press release @ 2.15pm. No policy change is expected. Meanwhile, the market has opened largely flat. The VIX is a touch higher, but still can't clear the 14 threshold.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

 Summary

So...GDP was lousy, but ADP is still offering reasonable jobs numbers, assuming you think 150/200k jobs a month is acceptable for the 'new era'

It will be interesting to see how unstable/choppy the market gets at the time of the Fed announcement this afternoon.


Meanwhile...the AMZN, with an early morning black/warning doom candle. Hmmm

That does NOT look a very good stock to be going long..at least until it puts in a daily close ABOVE that double resistance.

I will again note..and realise it sounds like more crazy talk..but AMZN should be a $20 stock. But hey..it is..what is it. Great company, but it can't make a decent profit.  I blame management. How difficult can it be to raise margins 5-7% on sales? All it takes it a few key strokes.