Pre-Market Brief

As I expected, despite the AAPL decline, the main indexes are largely ignoring it, and the sp is set to open -2pts or so @ 1492. Its going to take a lot more than AAPL to upset this market. Metals are especially weak though, with Gold -$13 or so.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

I'm not expecting too much today. Maybe we'll finally put in a moderate red close, but really, we'll be lucky to see -0.5% on the main indexes.

AAPL -10% in pre-market, with NFLX + 40% ...FORTY percent, after a 13 cent profit, that works out at a PE of 200 or so. Clearly, a bargain.

A little wave lower, finally?

The market has risen 98pts on the SP'500 across just 16 trading days. Even the close today was bullish, with no sign of any fear in the market. Yet we are well overdue a minor retracement. Perhaps AAPL's moderate concerns for Q1/Q2 will help initiate a minor retracement wave lower in the broader market?


sp'monthly2, Keltner

sp'60min4 - retracement levels

USD, weekly

WTIC Oil, daily

Summary

Primary trend remains unquestionably upward. There is easy room for upside to sp'1520, and by early March, that will be around 1540/50. So, those seeking historic highs for the SP'500 and the Dow'30, should look to March/April as the first real opportunity.

Oil closed lower today, and it could be a provisional indirect warning of the much waited for retracement in the indexes.


If dollar lower...everything else up.

The USD looks like a clear H/S on the weekly chart, and if that turns out to be the case, equities are going to surge into the sp'1600s by late spring..and into the summer.

Sp'1700s by mid summer? Yet more crazy talk? Well, what else should we be thinking? Algo-bots +POMO, and endless media hysteria that 'everything is fine', could make for one crazy bubble/ramp into Q3.


Thursday troubles?

With AAPL -10% in after hours - trading in the low $460s, tomorrow looks to be a significant lower open for the Nasdaq. Yet, the sp' is only -6pts (as at 7pm EST), and that barely rates as 'moderate'.

I think anyone hoping to see major declines tomorrow for the broader market are going to be disappointed, not least in the afternoon once the algo-bot melt up kicks in again. Its going to take at least few days to break lower, and even then, I can't see anything <1440 for many....many months.

Goodnight from a disturbingly bullish London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed. The transports and Rus'2000 - both the leaders since mid December, seem especially tired, and closed with a touch of weakness. What is clear, there is still no sign of the current upward trend ending.


IWM

Dow

SP, daily5

Trans

Summary

A pretty tiresome day of nothing.

*The gains in the Dow were almost entirely due to IBM.
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So...does this keep going?

Right now, there is nothing that is supportive of the current upward trend ending. Even a minor retracement to the sp'1450/40 area would do nothing to dent the underlying bullish momentum.

It has to be asked again, just how crazy high could this market get by the late spring/early summer? Are we looking at sp'1600s, even 1700s, on some kind of mass hysteria wave?

Keep in mind that we know the following...

-The debt ceiling WILL be raised, whether by the house, or by exec order
-The Fed is throwing 45bn of new money via POMO every month, and this ain't ending
-If there is any sign of economic weakness, the Fed will have an excuse to increase purchases to 100/125bn a month.


Yes, there are endless economic time-bombs ticking out there, and probably a whole flock of black swans even Taleb hasn't thought of, yet...baring any of those...this market is comfortably battling higher.

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A little more later