Thursday, 24 January 2013

12pm update - POMO fuelled market

The SP'500 is comfortably holding the 1500s, and the Dow is a mere 2.5% from breaking the Oct'2007 high of 14198. Most notable is the aspect that the current trend has accelerated - as first seen in the transports. Metals remain notably weak.


dow, daily



trans, daily


Summary

So..the market is going 'to da moon', fuelled by POMO money.

The fact the POMO is not scheduled to end until 'headline unemployment is at least <6.5%)  is something that so few are giving the credence it deserves.

Of course, some might suggest POMO $ aren't really being used to buy equities, but then, I'd merely suggest they look at an index chart from autumn 2010.

How did that work out for the bears then?
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There really isn't much else to say...

back at 3pm,
*although I might add to this post between now and then.
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Trans, monthly - an astounding gain already this year



Transports 6k is imminent, and 7k really now looks viable later in the year. Hell, why not 10k?

After all, Bernanke is NOT going to stop printing, and by default, most asset classes will ramp accordingly. Congrats to the Fed! They win.
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UPDATE 1pm... So..minor intra-day pullback, but most indexes still green.

VIX +3% .almost.. but remains well within even initial breakout level. Even a jump to the 14s by Mon/Tuesday barely ranks as moderately higher.


It will likely be laughable later today, any majorly bearish posts appear. Even a retracement to 1440s does NOTHING to do the massively strong upward trend.

11am update - the big sp'1500

Its been a long time since we saw the sp'1500s. Meanwhile, the Transports is showing continued strength..and its in an accelerated stage. A blow-off top, or just relentless ramp - fuelled by POMO money...for years to come? VIX is holding fractional gains.


sp'daily5



Trans, daily



vix'daily3


Summary

Still no sign of the indexes levelling out, quite the contrary in fact..as the Transports shows. The big 6k level is now easily within range.

To my own surprise, I still don't see many out there suggesting sp'1700s - with Trans @ 7k by year end.

The 'Bernanke bux',...are fuelling much of this..and it is scheduled to NEVER end.

Its probably time to get the Birinyi ruler out.

10am update - morning churn

Mr Market is showing marginal gains, despite the hysteria - that is AAPL, falling 12%. Metals remain weak, with the $ a touch higher. The VIX is largely flat, still holding the lowly 12s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3


AAPL, daily


Summary

So, as I expected, all those who got overly excited last night, hoping the main indexes would plunge was indeed majorly disappointed.

Its going to take a fair few days to turn this market lower, even if we somehow stopped today - which right now, shows NO sign of doing.
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The one minor bearish aspect right now is the VIX daily..which appears as though its building a floor. That sure doesn't mean its going up..but its...something.

With Oil slipping lower yesterday, and the metals following today, maybe the indexes will follow tomorrow?