12pm update - retracing

Market seems to be in a straight forward retrace, the only issue is where it floors, somewhere between 1440/25, by the end of this week. VIX is higher, but only by 2%, a gap fill @ 16.0 seems very reasonable to target.


sp'daily5

Summary

We're seeing a rollover on the daily MACD cycle, its pretty conclusive now.

Bulls can sustain a decline to sp'1420/15 without doing any damage to the primary trend.
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UPDATE 12.10pm - VIX

You can see the big gap from 16-18. Thats very likely to be filled, at least a hit of 16..later this week, yes?

The move from 22s down to 13s remains an incredible sight (I had bailed around VIX 22.10, that New Years Eve, Monday morning).

I'd like to pick up a VIX call block, but..if I'm right about sp'1510/20 in Feb/March, there is no point in doing that. VIX would probably hit the 12/11s by that time.
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11am update - retracement..underway

Well, it looks pretty decisive now, a retracement from last weeks gains is underway. First target is sp'1440/35, that is easily within range by tomorrow or early Thursday. VIX could do a simple gap fill at either 16..or even 18, although the latter seems pretty unlikely, even if we hit sp'1425.


sp'60min4

sp'daily5

Summary

So..we're on our way down, and now the only issue is how far down.

I don't see anyone touting anything <1425, other than the usual 'omg, we're going to crash' people.

On any basis, 1435/25 is a very reasonable place to build new longs, for a February/March hit of 1510/20.
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Considering the smaller cycles, I'm simply not comfortable re-shorting this nonsense.

If somehow we rally back to 1460/65..and get stuck again, ...maybe.
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10am update - opening minor chop

Mr Market is looking to take a new direction. The daily chart is highly suggestive we are rolling over, yet the hourly offers a new up cycle. Its a bit of a conflicted mess this morning. The Transports and Rus'2000 are already green, no sign of any down turn there.


sp'60min4

sp'daily5

Summary

Despite the lower open, the VIX is red again, and there just seems lack of 'bear power' right now.

Yet, Q4 earnings start later today, and that could easily be the excuse the market needs for a limited downside move.
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As things are, I'm sitting back..the hourly chart in particular is not in a good place to re-short..at least until late today.

If I miss out on a retracement lower, I can easily cope with that. Surprisingly, I'd much rather go long at 1430/25 this Thursday/Friday.

Urghh..  a doomer bear looking to go long. The ultimate contrarian sell signal ?
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