Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, the sp -3pts, we're set to open @ 1458. The $ is a little higher..as are the metals. Q4 earnings start today, with Alcoa at the close of trading.  The market could easily use this as an excuse to sell down..if only 2%.


sp'60min'4 - retracement

sp'daily5

Summary

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) hourly cycle is suggestive we'll generally crawl higher, although there is only low confidence in that outlook.

Note that the daily cycle is yet to conclusively rollover yet.
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In general, I'm looking  - as many seem to be, for a retracement, at least down to sp'1445/40, possible 1425, by the end of this week.

Depending upon the price action today, I may take a brief re-short, seeking that move from 1460/65, down to 1440/25.

Good wishes for Tuesday!

Primary target is sp'1510/20

Despite some lingering talk from some in the doomer bear camp, with the sp'1398 low holding, the big weekly and monthly cycles are unquestionably now outright bullish. The low sp'1500s seem very much within range, and could easily occur as early as February.


sp'weekly

sp'monthly2, Keltner

Summary

Despite being a self titled 'doomster', the market is...what it is. Right now, this market is BULLISH.  I could write endlessly on how 'stupid' this is, and how the fundamentals don't support it, but no.

The market..is...what it is.
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Sucking in a few naive bears?

The market still looks prone to a retracement across the next 2-4 days, and we could easily be trading somewhere around 1440/30. A fair few others 'out there' are suggesting a gap fill @ sp'1425.

The rising channel - seen on both the daily/weekly charts, as at this Friday will be 1415. So, even a move into the low 1420s would do NO damage to the bullish outlook.

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I'm considering a 'brief' re-short sometime Tuesday...but I might just sit it out..and wait to take the default trade..which is now to go long.

If we're somewhere around 1435/25 later this week, that will be a 'close your eyes, and hit the long button' moment, even for yours truly.

*Keep in mind that Tuesday we start Q4 earnings reporting, with Alcoa (AA) at the close. So, Mr Market will have a lot to consider across the next few weeks.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The indexes closed red, but the declines were very minor, and as expected, we saw a latter day recovery. The transports and Rus'2000 are comfortably holding within their breakout territory, and it still seems likely we'll be trading in the sp'1500s within the next 2-6 weeks.


IWM, daily

Sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

All things considered, the bulls are very much in charge. The gains from last weeks hyper-ramp are holding, and even if we retrace lower to 1440/25 later this week, the near term trend is still to the upside. It would be very surprising if we break the ascending channel support - which by this Friday, will be @ sp'1415.

With the weekly and monthly charts both pushing higher, the default trade is now most definitely to the upside.

A little more later