Closing Brief

The broader market closed lower, but its important to note that the most volatile and ramp-reacting indexes - the transports, and the Rus'2000, both closed higher. We remain a mere 2% or so from the mid-September FOMC highs.


Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Trans'60min

Summary

A marginally interesting closing hour, with more intense weakness in the last 15 minutes.


The December 17'th low

For the bears, the critical low is from last Friday, sp'1413. Until we take out that low, the near term trend is unquestionably still UP.

Getting down below sp'1420 is going to be difficult, not least since Christmas trading volume could be so low as to allow the bots to melt everything back higher - even with the relentless concern about lack of a fiscal cliff agreement.
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More later..on the VIX, which closed significantly higher.

3pm update - even sp'1420 is no good

With the indexes showing a little weakness, even if we slip all the way into the close, and even open lower tomorrow, its not going to be enough to decisively break the up trend. Even sp'1420 is not good enough, as a number of the daily charts clearly support.


sp'daily5

sp'daily7 - fib levels.

Summary

I think the fib' chart is especially interesting, as it highlights that even a retracement to the low 1420s is just nothing in the scheme of things.

VIX is back in the low 17s, but as noted, this is more about contracts rolling over into the next month than anything else.

So, for me, it remains the case that until sp<1413, I just can't take any of this seriously.

UPDATE 3.20pm A eenewed little wave of weakness across the indexes - although Trans and R2K are still higher. A close in the low sp'1430s very viable, not that it counts for much.

Even Queen cheer leader on clown network, Ms. Bartiromo seems tired of the political games.


sp'60min

 back after the close

2pm update - Euro maxed out?

Whilst the main market shows a little weakness, consider the Euro currency, which is currently sporting a very prominent black fail/doom candle on the daily chart. Having broken key resistance, a break back into the 1.30/29s would be a problem.


Euro, daily

Summary

As I noted last night, the currency situation is already starting to move beyond the border, and the dollar is breaking an trend that goes back to spring 2011.

Yet, today's Euro candle is suggestive of a possible top, at least for a few days.

Without question, I won't have any confidence until I see USD back in the 80s, which would probably equate to Euro 1.29s
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As for the indexes..

sp'60min

Its nothing to get excited over. I'm very much going to remain in the mindset of 'call me when we're <1413'.

VIX is +8%, but 5-6% of that move is likely due to futures contracts moving to the next month out.


VIX, daily

Give me a call if we break into the mid 17s tomorrow..with sp <1425, otherwise, this is all meaningless noise.