11am update - up into the 1400s

Market is stronger than I had expected, clearly..the multi-week decline is complete. A very strong 1-2 week bounce is now underway, and is likely to level out around 1400/25 by end of November. Bears should be careful not to get sucked into any micro down waves. Near term trend is UP.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly2

Summary

So..we're headed up...in what many were looking for...a 'holiday reversal'.

It looks like we will see 1400 hit this week, and 1410/25, early next week.

At that point, I'm VERY confident we'll get stuck in the low 1400s.  The only issue is how long do we churn sideways before we fall like a rock.

Right now.. Monday Dec'3rd looks 'interesting' for the bears ;)

AAPL seeing something of a short-squeeze...

First target is 590..so there is a very likely $40 yet to go.
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10am update - original outlook on track

A few weeks ago I set out a very broad outlook, and it remains on track. With primary target sp'1345 hit, we're now set for a very strong wave'2 bounce, levelling out somewhere around 1400/25, this will take until next week to level out.


dow'60min

sp'daily4 - original outlook (from late October)

Summary

More than anything, lets be clear, the size/power of this opening bounce is too much for the bears to be re-shorting into. I would be very surprised if we saw a reversal lower now, and I sure won't risk that.

I will sit this ENTIRE week out. No shorts...no longs.

Bears face a very strong wave higher into the 1400/25 range across the next 4-6 trading days. 

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So..last Fridays wave 4 & 5 outlook on the hourly chart gets thrown out, and I'm reverting back to the original outlook.

I will simply wait to re-short next week in the low 1400s.

back at 11am

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Update..take a look at the sp'weekly rainbow chart...

Look at the stupid (wave'2) bounce we got in June 2011

We soared 70pts in a single week, then some churn..and then a wave'3 lower - on the debt ceiling/ratings concerns.
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Thats a fair example of what I'm seeking in early December.
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So...I'm sitting it out..and merely letting the bull maniacs ramp it...hard.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are now showing sp +12pts, we're set to open in the low 1370s. There is some housing data at 10am, and it does seem likely we'll be lurking in the 1370s for most of the morning at least.


sp'60min

sp'daily5g

Summary

Anything over 1375 would break the upper channel on my hourly index charts.

Those bears seeking a re-short today, should wait at least until after the housing data, to give the market some time to at least exhaust the opening ramp.

Whether we tumble lower into the close, perhaps even closing red, that is the big question today.
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Best guess -as based on transports, we are in a minor wave'4, with a final fifth to play out between now and the Wednesday close.

Good wishes for this shortened 3.5 trading day 'thanksgiving' week*.

back at 10am...just after the housing data!
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*market closed Thursday, and only trades Friday 9.30am>1pm.
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UPDATE 8.35am futures now sp +15pts, we're set to open 1374/75, at the borderline of the descending channel. 

UPDATE 9.05am futures +16pts. We're breaking out of the channel.

It would appear my original outlook was right all along.

sp'daily4

So..with the gains as they are..even before housing data..we could testing the big 200 day MA @1380 later today, or tomorrow

With my primary target of 1345 hit, the next original target was sp'1400/25 - perhaps a back test of the Oct'2011 rising support.

If that is the case, then bears MUST be patient for another 4-6 trading days, effectively not until the very tail end of November.

So..as things are...I'm not set to sit this week on the sidelines. I won't go long...too much risk of a news wire report whacking this market lower. What I won't do though is fight a bounce that is already close to breaking outside the channel.