10am update - another rally attempt to fail

Good mornng. The market opens with moderate gains, but it sure doesn't look like they'll hold. VIX is a touch lower, but so far, it has not broken yesterdays low.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Opening gains starting to weaken..we're almost red already.

*retail sales came in a touch lower for October, and there should be the real concern that the 'black Friday' (Nov'23) holiday shopping period will be much weaker than last week. As ever, we'll just have to see how much free cash the American consumer has to spend.
-

FB is seeing a stupid bounce +7% or so, it won't last. Its merely another opportunity to short, just like that stupid 25% day was a few weeks ago.

back at 12pm

Market still looks very weak

Yet another day where the bulls rallied from initial opening declines, but once again..the rally failed. The main market closed moderately lower, and the sp' saw its fourth consecutive close under the important 200 day MA.


sp'monthly3, rainbow

spdaily7 - fib levels

Summary

First, the big monthly rainbow chart is still comfortably sporting its second consecutive warning blue candle. Just a little lower, and we might see this flip to red - which would be a major warning of trouble into December.

The daily fib' chart is something I like, the 61.8% retracement @ 1345 is particularly appealing to me, as it matches up with the lower bollinger band on the weekly charts.

If you look at the MACD (blue bar histogram) on the daily charts, its remarkable to note that since Bernanke announced QE3, we've seen a quadruple down cycle, and there is no sign of things levelling out yet. The height of irony for the Fed, they may have marked a grand top in the market with their latest bout of printing madness.


The Puetz window is approaching

Speaking of madness, I'm tentatively throwing out into the open my own chart, which highlights the Puetz crash window. With today's solar eclipse in the southern hemisphere, the window will open in around nine days.

It is just something I am keeping in the back of my mind in the days ahead. It is NOT something I am trading around. However, the statistical basis on which the theory is based..is (I believe) correct.


sp'daily5c

The window effectively opens around Thursday Nov'22 - although the market is closed for Thanksgiving, and is only open from 9.30am to 1pm on Fri' Nov'23.

The window closes over the weekend of Dec 1/2. So, I would include trading on Monday Dec'3rd.


A crash to the monthly target of sp'1200/1175?

I'd give the odds of a 'one day special', at no more than 20-1, I suppose some might say that is pretty high, but still, we've already seen a considerable decline from sp'1474 to 1374, and I remain guessing we'll rally in the near term from 1345 to 1400.

I will say a lot more on this crash window, if we break <sp'1300 in the days ahead. For now, that's all I'm going to say. So..you now have my take on that issue.

--

Bonus chart !

Dow, monthly3, rainbow

With the dow closing -59pts today, the monthly chart is now flashing the first sell signal, and is confirming the provisional blue candle warning from October. The natural target in this new multi-month decline would be somewhere around 11500/250.
--

Today was certainly a testing one - although in fairness, the trading range was barely 1%. There is still seemingly likely at least one major downside wave due, regardless of where the moon and sun might be ;)

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

A very mixed day, one where opening declines were erased with a morning mini-ramp, only to see renewed weakness return after lunch, with the broader market closing moderate lower. The VIX appears to have floored, and closed a touch green, and thus confirmed the underlying index weakness.


Dow

Sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

Today was another fine example of how the rallies are to be sold into. The bulls have been valiantly battling for almost two months now, and EVERY rally is failing (at least across a multi-day time frame).

The price action into the close was pretty bearish, and there is now the potential for a major gap lower early Wednesday morning.

With the VIX hourly cycle primed for a good 4-6 hours upward action, everything is now setup for the bears.

If we don't break into the 1350s tomorrow - at least briefly, I would be kinda surprised.

I remain short, holding to my primary target of sp'1345.

A little more later.