sp'monthly3, rainbow
spdaily7 - fib levels
Summary
First, the big monthly rainbow chart is still comfortably sporting its second consecutive warning blue candle. Just a little lower, and we might see this flip to red - which would be a major warning of trouble into December.
The daily fib' chart is something I like, the 61.8% retracement @ 1345 is particularly appealing to me, as it matches up with the lower bollinger band on the weekly charts.
If you look at the MACD (blue bar histogram) on the daily charts, its remarkable to note that since Bernanke announced QE3, we've seen a quadruple down cycle, and there is no sign of things levelling out yet. The height of irony for the Fed, they may have marked a grand top in the market with their latest bout of printing madness.
The Puetz window is approaching
Speaking of madness, I'm tentatively throwing out into the open my own chart, which highlights the Puetz crash window. With today's solar eclipse in the southern hemisphere, the window will open in around nine days.
It is just something I am keeping in the back of my mind in the days ahead. It is NOT something I am trading around. However, the statistical basis on which the theory is based..is (I believe) correct.
sp'daily5c
The window effectively opens around Thursday Nov'22 - although the market is closed for Thanksgiving, and is only open from 9.30am to 1pm on Fri' Nov'23.
The window closes over the weekend of Dec 1/2. So, I would include trading on Monday Dec'3rd.
A crash to the monthly target of sp'1200/1175?
I'd give the odds of a 'one day special', at no more than 20-1, I suppose some might say that is pretty high, but still, we've already seen a considerable decline from sp'1474 to 1374, and I remain guessing we'll rally in the near term from 1345 to 1400.
I will say a lot more on this crash window, if we break <sp'1300 in the days ahead. For now, that's all I'm going to say. So..you now have my take on that issue.
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Bonus chart !
Dow, monthly3, rainbow
With the dow closing -59pts today, the monthly chart is now flashing the first sell signal, and is confirming the provisional blue candle warning from October. The natural target in this new multi-month decline would be somewhere around 11500/250.
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Today was certainly a testing one - although in fairness, the trading range was barely 1%. There is still seemingly likely at least one major downside wave due, regardless of where the moon and sun might be ;)
Goodnight from London