Closing Brief

A bad day for the bulls, with a VERY important close below yesterdays closing hour spike. The VIX confirmed the significant declines.


IWM'60min

Dow'60min

Sp'60min

Transports

Summary

A good day in bear land, with a particularly weak close.
-
I am short, seeking 1400/1395 tomorrow..or no later than Thur/Friday.

A close below the recent cycle low of sp'1397 would open a mini-collapse door, as low as sp'1325 within 3-5 trading days, with the VIX at least 24/26.

More later.

3pm update - bounce continues

We're seeing some afternoon chop, and the indexes are still holding broadly onto much of their declines. VIX is weakening, and the hourly VIX cycle is warning of further index upside into early tomorrow.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Mini-ramp still in progress...

At present...tempted to short...but waiting..perhaps until tomorrow.

Wednesday is FOMC day..and there is a small threat of 1425/30. I can't see anything over 1440 though, and I will absolutely be fully short no later than Wednesday afternoon.

My Friday target is sp'1380... a lower revision, after today's action - especially in the VIX, I can't see the big 1400 level holding.

back after the close

3.22pm UPDATE

re-shorted from sp'1417. I am starting to see some weakness out there. I might be early, but I sure think sp'1400 will be challenged, if not tomorrow, then Thur/Friday.

2pm update - bounce still holding together

The bounce from the 1407 low is still holding together..just. Upside target zone remains 1420/22. The VIX  has really cooled off from the open, almost completing a gap-fill in the low 18s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I am very tempted for a re-short before the close.

*Am also tempted to short FB, but I will refrain. Daily chart for FB says UP. If it does fall due to earnings tomorrow, I might just short on the bounce, whatever that might be.
--

With two hours to go..lets see if we can break back briefly into the 1420s.

back at 3pm