3pm update - bounce continues

We're seeing some afternoon chop, and the indexes are still holding broadly onto much of their declines. VIX is weakening, and the hourly VIX cycle is warning of further index upside into early tomorrow.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Mini-ramp still in progress...

At present...tempted to short...but waiting..perhaps until tomorrow.

Wednesday is FOMC day..and there is a small threat of 1425/30. I can't see anything over 1440 though, and I will absolutely be fully short no later than Wednesday afternoon.

My Friday target is sp'1380... a lower revision, after today's action - especially in the VIX, I can't see the big 1400 level holding.

back after the close

3.22pm UPDATE

re-shorted from sp'1417. I am starting to see some weakness out there. I might be early, but I sure think sp'1400 will be challenged, if not tomorrow, then Thur/Friday.