Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately high, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1435.

*Jobs data: 96k /8.1% vs 125k /8.3% consensus. The revisions are often so large, these numbers are probably nonsense too.


sp'daily5

Summary

My target is indeed 1445, so if the futures gains hold, then we'll only be a mere 10pts shy of my target.

Lets not too fixated on targets though, all we can say with confidence is that this is day'2 of an up cycle, and its probably going to continue until next Tuesday at least.

More across the day.

Primary trend remains UP

With the indexes soaring around 2% today, the bulls must be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Yet, what about the bigger picture?

Lets close today with a look at the rainbow chart...

sp, monthly, rainbow

Summary

Stripping away all the usual chart stuff, we're left with a pure simple green candle for the sp'500.

We can be clear about this, the primary trend is still up. No matter what any of the doomers out there might wish to claim, the trend IS up. It is almost amusing how we are seeing claims of 'overbought', and yet its only day'1 of this new up cycle.

A very natural target for the bulls would be the upper bollinger band of 1467 - and that itself is rising. By mid/late October, the top band will comfortably allow 1500. So if the Bernanke or the Germans, fail to upset the market next week, sp'1500s are a very reasonable target for the autumn.

As for tomorrow, well, I'm not going to get too excited about the jobs data. It really doesn't seem to matter too much a lot of the time. We could open a little lower, and we'll still probably close green.

As permabear, I will merely sit back and watch. Lets see how high those bots - or even those rare 'real people' wanna keep buying this market.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

A strong snap higher for the market, confirming the bullish pennant that I'd been concerned about for some days. With the VIX falling -12%, the immediate trend is most certainly upward.

Most of the main indexes closed at or a touch above the spring highs. Considering this is just day'1 of this up cycle, we could go some considerable way further yet!


Nasdaq Comp

Sp

Transports

Summary

Some strong gains for the broader market, and clearly the bullish pennant theory 'get out of the the way bears' was indeed the right outlook yesterday. I sure feel glad I bailed at sp'1401, which looks a fair way down from here!

That MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle sure is useful sometimes. If you look at the cycle, we could easily trundle a further 3-5 days higher before we complete this new up move.

Regardless of whatever the jobs data is tomorrow, I still think we'll battle our way higher, target for next Tue-Thursday is around sp'1445.  So, we're only talking about 1% or so higher to go, its really not much, but it'll probably take a few days to claw to that level.

As things are, I sure won't be re-shorting until late Tuesday at the earliest, and there is some significant risk in that trade idea, with both the German court and FOMC next Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Busy days ahead!

A little more later.