10am update - minor declines

As expected, minor declines for early Monday. VIX is up 2%...barely qualifies as 'noise'.

I'd guess we trundle lower for 3-5 hours - I don't expect anything <1345, and start to show an upturn late in the day. No point re-shorting here, even though the Bernanke speaks tomorrow - often a somewhat bearish event. It still looks like the maniacs want to at least make one charge this week to take out the recent 1374 high.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Seeking a B' wave lower. I suppose it could last all the way into early Tuesday...too difficult to say.

I am not going to get involved in this chop-fest. I'm sitting it out until the daily cycle starts to rollover again..and right now, there won't be any sign of that until late Tuesday at the very earliest.

*Bernanke speaks both tomorrow AND Wednesday, so we have some good entertainment this week.
--

*recommneded reading... Ultimate Death Cross
I have a lot to say on this issue, but I'll save it for my closing post of the day later this evening.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are sp-5pts or so, we're set to open around 1351. I'd expect those declines to increase to around 7/10pts  by late morning, and best guess..we close largely flat.

I'm seeking further gains tomorrow - at least briefly. Both these waves could constitute the B and C waves.

We do have econ-data this morning...
Retail Sales: -0.5% vs 0.2% previous ...lousy !
Empire Manu' survey:  7.39%...vs 2.2% previous...better, but still 'low'
 ---


sp'60min

sp,daily5

Summary

I am not looking to re-short today, tomorrow seems the very earliest, and then its a little risky since upside is around 1385 by the end of the week.

From a MACD cycle perspective - see daily chart, we could easily crawl higher until Wed/Thursday before the first sign of a rollover. However, unlike some out there, I am looking for a decisive turn lower before the end of this week.

Best guess, we rally to around 1365/70...or a new high in the 1375/80 range, and still close the week around 1350.

Good wishes for the week ahead!

Another fun filled trading week ahead

Last week was pretty dynamic, initial losses looked promising, but then we saw a pretty fierce ramp from 1325 to 1356.

Where now? There are still the usual bull maniacs touting new index highs >1422 in the months ahead, although they do seem to be less in number. I think the lousy earnings are starting to wake up a few more analysts out there.


Sp, monthly, H/S

Summary

Near term primary target remains 1225/00. Secondary target zone is 1170/50. That could be hit as soon as mid August - and would put the bigger picture outlook back on schedule.


sp'monthly, scenario

My best guess remains scenario'B, although I am starting to wonder if C' is more likely. There are a few reasons for that, mostly its about time. The notion of breaking below sp'1100 this year seems a stretch on any basis, as we should get a very large bounce of 150/200pts for an intermediate wave'2 UP. That will take probably take 3 or 4 months to complete. So, even if we floor in the 1100s by late August, add on 3-4 months to that..and we're basically ready for Santa to appear.

I've a chart to explain that outlook, and will probably post it tomorrow evening.


Monday trading

Futures are currently marginally lower by sp -3pts, nothing exciting. We could easily see an intra-day drop of sp 7-10pts. I'd still guess we see a largely flat close to Monday, and then further gains on Tuesday. I remain looking for a re-short somewhere around sp'1365-85, no later than Thursday.

Goodnight from London