11am update - its oh so quiet

Morning weakness continues, but its still very minor moves.

The VIX daily/weekly cycles are still warning of major increases in volatility, but..until we're over 20, none of these 5/7/10% moves can be taken seriously.
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sp'60min

VIX, daily, rainbow

Blue candle so far today on the rainbow chart, a green candle by the close would be a bonus to the bears, and set up the next move to hit VIX 20.


Summary

First soft resistance, the hourly 10MA @ 1353. I'd be very surprised if we can break into the 1360s today. We 'should' on any basis at least hit 1340 in the near term.

Its kinda starting to look like we might just trundle sideways all the way across the day, merely awaiting the first earnings report from AA.

I remain short, first exit target 1340/35..which now looks likely not until tomorrow.

10am update - morning weakness

It was somewhat amusing to see them briefly flash the markets green, only to then knock it lower. Bulls had a chance to exit at 1355...there can be no excuses today!


sp'60min

Bears should look for a break below the baby bear flag (pink), sp'1347/45 would confirm it, and that opens up 1340 later today.


vix'60min

Summary

VIX is higher, but its still arguably minor 'noise'. Bears will want to see at least +7%, preferably 10% to close today.

We have Alcoa (AA) earnings at the close, I can't imagine them posting anything good.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are marginally lower, sp -3pts, so we're set to open around 1351 or so. Nothing much  happened overnight, I guess Mr Market is waiting for the next EU rumour or some other nonsense.

*The only econ-data today is consumer credit later this afternoon at 3pm. I suppose that could move the market a little, but it tends not to be that much of a market mover these days - even when the number is bad.

A reminder on where we are....


sp'60min

Sp'1335 would certainly be a very natural place to target later today or early Tuesday.


sp' daily5

Summary

I'm looking for at least a move to 1340 today, that would be a nice 14pts lower, I'll look to exit there, and then see how any latter day bounce action is.

The lower channel line on the daily suggest 1330/35 today, but that will have risen to 1340 by this Friday.

So if we're below 1340 by this Friday, that in itself should mean we're on our way to sp'1266, although right now that seems at least 2 trading weeks away.


One last bounce?

There are plenty of chartists out there suggesting a move to 1340..and then a bounce to either put in a slightly lower high..or even one final higher high in the 1370/90 range. That remains my concern early this week.

Those bears looking for much lower levels must seek a VIX breaking back above 20 this week. If the VIX closes flat today (or even red!), then bears have a real problem again.

Good wishes for the trading week ahead!