Tuesday, 15 May 2012

2pm update - is it opex Friday yet?

I'm getting real tired of todays nonsense. I look forward to getting past this opex-Friday, along with the facebook hysteria. Things sure will be a lot simpler next week.


Sp'15min


Summary

Urghh..what an ugly day its been. I'm at least glad I had the sense to stay out of it. How are we going to close today? Well, the 60min cycle is STILL suggesting upside, but I sure don't have high confidence in things to the upside. Were it not for opex, I'd be short, and would just sit back and not be concerned about these intra-day swings.

*I noticed PCX just now, its -16%. I don't know why, maybe its something to do with the fact that it doesn't make any money in its coal mining business. For some, 'trading on fundamentals' is a bizarre concept, but..if a stock is loss making, its bizarre that any ordinary retail trader would ever buy it.
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More later, unless I die of frustration watching this chop-fest

1pm update - weak bounce..so far

The bounce after the second morning low is still holding, but its weak. I suppose at least the issue of  whether there will be greek elections in June or not is now clarified. As I type, the 15min cycle is again rolling over, urghh. What a mess today is!


Sp'15min



Sp'60min H/S formation


Summary

The bulls will be desperate for a closing over the hourly 10MA of 1341

As noted earlier, I'm not pleased with the action today, its just too messy. I remain hoping for a moderate rally into opex-Friday, at which point it might be the right time to re-short.

More across the afternoon!

12pm update - time for another bounce

The 15min down cycle only lasted 45 minutes, and again we've seen a bounce. A break over 1345 opens up the mid 1350s. The H/S formation target of 1370/75 still looks a long way up


Sp'60min, count'1


Summary

Note the MACD cycle, which is showing underlying uptrend - a real threat to those holding short. We are due to go +cycle this hour or no later than 2pm. Further upside looks VERY likely right now.

I'm tired of this mess today. Right now, the only trade I would consider is a re-short around 1365/75 this Friday..or early next week.