11am update - its a mess out there

A real mess so far this morning. The various micro-cycles are very conflicting, and to top it off, the VIX opened lower despite the Greek news.

The following 15 minute cycle charts highlight just how much of a mess this first 90mins of the trading day has been.


IWM'15min

VIX'15min

sp'60min, H/S formation

Summary

The hourly cycle on the various indexes is still suggestive of a move higher, the H/S chart highlights this possible move into opex Friday. However, both the index and VIX 15min charts are bearish.

I'm staying out of this mess, at least until late afternoon. Its possible all the cycles will re-sync by 3pm, and if the indexes are maxed out, it'd be a tempting short.

10am update - Greece causing more trouble

Pre-market Futures swung from dow +70 to -20 in a matter of minutes, after it appears confirmed Greece will hold elections (again) in June. It would seem the anti-bailout vote will increase, and thus an exit from the EU/Euro just became more likely. This will only add to the bearish uncertainty into the summer - and is supportive of the broadly bearish monthly outlook. Once Greece goes...attention will naturally switch to Spain, and it is Spain which remains the societal tinderbox of Europe.

We've a messy open, dow -20, then +20, best to stay out of the way of this.


Sp'60min, count'2

Vix'60min

Summary

Considering the latest Greek news, the VIX is surprisingly weak. I had expected at least a 5% gap up..and instead we're -4%. Not sure what to make of that.

I'm tempted to go long, but urghh, I think I'll sit on the sidelines today.

*We do have some more econ-data both tomorrow and Thursday (there is nothing this opex/Facebook Friday).
 
More later....

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are suggesting sp+7 to 1346. Retail Sales data were in line with expectations of +0.1% There is more econ-data at 10am.

The bearish outlook - with a primary target of the 200day MA at 1277 still looks viable. The H/S formation was arguably confirmed yesterday with the break of 1340. However, there is still the threat of a move to 1370/80 in the coming few days. Its opex week, we've the Facebook IPO, and the smaller cycles remain oversold.


Sp'daily - bearish outlook

Sp'60min - H/S formation

Summary

Its starting to get real tricky at the moment. Bears have a real problem, the daily MACD cycle is now VERY low. Despite the doom chatter out there (mostly about an imminent Greek exit), this is not a great place in the cycle to be adding new short positions.

60min cycle, daily.. say UP
weekly, monthly.... DOWN
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I'm not sure what I'm doing today. Going long after the market gaps up 50/75 dow, that doesn't sound great when you realise we could be red later in the day. Going short - knowing that 1370/80 remains a VERY natural target by Facebook opex-Friday, that's also a disturbing thought.

Probably best to do nothing..or just trade intra-day, a short when the 15min cycle peaks - which currently would be likely around 12-1pm.

More across the day....as usual.