Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are catching a bid as weekly jobs data came in better than expected at 365k vs 378k expected. Productivy numbers came in largely in line at -0.4% (Q1/Q4 change). Note that we have ISM non-manufacturing number at 10am, that will likely give the market an excuse to solidify gains..or sell off any opening rally.


Sp'60min

From a cycle MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective, we are certainly inclined to cycle up for a few hours in the first half of today. Bears could cope (just) with sp'1310, but certainly the mini-H/S formation idea gets thrown out if we break a new high sp>1416.

*It remains important to note that other indexes - including the Rus'2000, already broke below the equivalent of sp'1395 yesterday.


Asking for too much?

Tomorrow we have the big monthly jobs data for April. The last time the number came out the main market was closed and only the Futures were open..and we saw a swift dow -150pt decline. What about tomorrow? I don't think its expecting too much to see at least 1385/80 tested on Friday. That would of course be a natural bounce zone, at least for 2-6 trading hours.
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As usual..more throughout the day. Good wishes for Thursday trading!

Dr Copper - leading the next wave lower?

Copper showed some distinct weakness today, whilst equities largely remained flat.


Copper, daily

Copper, weekly

Summary

The daily cycle is clearly ready to rollover. The big question is whether the weekly cycle is about to also rollover, and put in a much smaller tower/up cycle. If Copper can break below 3.70..and soon after..3.60, then it might be a prime sell signal for the broader equity and commodity markets.

Its certainly something to watch for the remainder of this week.

Goodnight from London

Transports - which way?

The Transportation Index remains the one to watch this summer. The 'Tranny' almost had a second consecutive +1% day. Lets take a quick look, especially at the bigger picture.


Transports, daily, rainbow (Elder Impulse -style)

Transports, monthly, bullish

Transports, monthly, bearish/doomster outlook

Summary

Key thresholds...
March high: 5390     
Recent trading range low: March: 5029

As I've been noting for some weeks now, the direction in which the transports breaks from its current 5 month range, will likely be a key indicator of where the broader market is headed. Keep on watching that Tranny!