Thursday 3 May 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are catching a bid as weekly jobs data came in better than expected at 365k vs 378k expected. Productivy numbers came in largely in line at -0.4% (Q1/Q4 change). Note that we have ISM non-manufacturing number at 10am, that will likely give the market an excuse to solidify gains..or sell off any opening rally.


Sp'60min


From a cycle MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective, we are certainly inclined to cycle up for a few hours in the first half of today. Bears could cope (just) with sp'1310, but certainly the mini-H/S formation idea gets thrown out if we break a new high sp>1416.

*It remains important to note that other indexes - including the Rus'2000, already broke below the equivalent of sp'1395 yesterday.


Asking for too much?

Tomorrow we have the big monthly jobs data for April. The last time the number came out the main market was closed and only the Futures were open..and we saw a swift dow -150pt decline. What about tomorrow? I don't think its expecting too much to see at least 1385/80 tested on Friday. That would of course be a natural bounce zone, at least for 2-6 trading hours.
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As usual..more throughout the day. Good wishes for Thursday trading!