1pm update - RS forming ?

The market clearly floored on both the 15 and 60min cycles, the current 7pt bounce is to be expected - although of course its highly annoying to anyone still short. As ever, it is always about the power of the move, and right now the moves are just weak, the sub 20' VIX is testament to this idea. If we are going to break below 1357, we are likely going to need to see VIX break the 21 level.


SP'60min

So..am looking for a RS to form...1405/07 would be the ideal max' level. The fact that the 10MA is also around that level - currently sp'1406, would make for a nice place for the market to fail/rollover.

Maybe this micro-cycle can peak before today ends? That would at least make Thursday a little more bearish, and then we can await Friday for the more dynamic move..one way or the other.

12pm update - mini H/S forming?

The downside momentum was not enough to decisively break under the recent 1394 low. So,..up we go again.
Looking at the hourly cycle, are we setting up a mini head/shoulders formation? To confirm it, first we need a fail/rollover at the 1405/10 level...and then a swift move to break <1394. Its something to watch for as the day develops, and into Thursday. The RS - if that's what it will be, might take until late Thursday to fully form, and that would set up the major snap/fall under 1394 this Friday -when the big jobs data is released.


Sp'60min

From a MACD cycle perspective, we are already very low, and due a few hours to the upside.

Best guess right now...a move back to 1405/07...forming a RS, before a second attempt to break 1394, more likely tomorrow.

More later, its time for lunch!

11am update - still awaiting a decisive break

Sp'1393 is not good enough for the bears. The bulls have effectively held the first line of defence this morning. Right now, bulls are getting a hammer off the 1394 previous low. This could be a disaster for the bears if we break above 1415. As ever, good trading stops are the answer to such unknowns.


Sp'60min

Not much to add right now, so far..bears do NOT have their break. I suppose we could back test the 10MA at 1405..before starting a second attempt to break <1394.
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The daily cycle still looks potentially bearish, but more on that later!