10am update

An important morning ahead. With very poor ADP jobs data, market is getting an excuse for follow through to the downside. The natural cycle for the 60min cycle was inclined to be down anyway this morning (as I posted yesterday lunchtime)..so, this opening minor drop is not unexpected. The critical issue is whether we can break the recent low of 1394. I guess it could be said its not important for it to be done this morning - rather than by the close of today, but it will be much harder to do later. The bears need to see weakness down to 1390.. now!

*10am Factory Orders data: -1.5%  vs -1.6% expected


SP'60min

You can see the key levels, most important of all, bulls need to hold that 1385/80 zone...otherwise..real problems. However, low 1380s..even 1370s look an awfully long way down. There isn't the momentum right now to get this market lower, bears need more bad news!

*regarding the 1-5 count (in black). Its really just a vague guess. I suppose it could be right, but with the market as it is, its a VERY unreliable count. Only with a move <1380 would I say 'it was probably right..after all'.


Vix'60min

Bears really need to see VIX close in the 18s either later today or early Thursday.
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Spanish IBEX is falling again, even clown channel was highlighting it just earlier. IBEX 6800..with around 1800pts to fall in the 'near term' - as I stated for some weeks now.

More later!

Pre-market Brief

Good morning, those ADP jobs numbers sure are disappointing the market. Futures were -0.25%..now slipping to -0.75%. This is actually a little exciting, the key level remains 1395..and then 1380.

*ADP jobs data: 119k  (previous 209k) vs. expected 183k


SP'60min

Yesterdays last hour was pretty interesting, looking for good follow through this morning.

Bears need a lower low, preferably under 1390.
Bulls merely need to hold above 1395/1400..

A long day ahead...good wishes for Wednesday!

Euro-Trash - an update

The Euro Currency appears ready for a major new down cycle. Both the daily and weekly cycles are now ready and able to begin a new down wave to around 1.25/24. I am tempted to wonder what news event/story might help precipitate such a move, but perhaps it'll just be a natural cyclical move lower.


Euro, daily

Euro, weekly

Summary

Just look at those MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles on both charts, they are both in the right position for a rollover this month. Even if it started today, it will take at least 3-5 trading days to know for sure if the trend is really changing.

Look for a break of 1.30. If that fails to hold as support, we should see at least a swift 5 cent move lower. In the scheme of things, that would only be a move of 5% from present levels, but it would certainly help to kick the Dollar upward, and that would put significant downward pressure on both equities and commodities (especially those precious metals!).

The rest of the week will be busy too...I think its time to rest.

Goodnight from the city of Green Shoots.