Shields UP...you bullish maniacs!

Good morning! The daily cycle bear flag will be confirmed at the open with a gap lower of around 1.25% or so, that gets us to around sp'1365.

Everything is looking good for a bearish week ahead.

This remains the primary chart to keep in mind...

Sp'daily, bearish outlook

Doubtless, regardless of how low we fall this morning, we'll get a bounce/test of the 10MA later in the day, and then rollover again.

Those bulls who were going long on Friday are getting a chance to exit this morning for just a minor loss, if they hold, they could be panic selling by late Wednesday. From a bear's perspective, this could be a highly amusing week to watch and be part of ;)

Much more throughout the day!

...and the Wheel spins up for another week

Well the futures wheel of fortune has spun up, we're 5mins in and the SP equivalent ES is -3.5pts. Not exactly free fall, but neither is it +10pts for no good reason. Bears have everything set for a bearish week ahead. All the cycles are primed for some dynamic moves to the downside.

Sp'daily cycle

Futures are highly unreliable, so we could still open higher -although I'm guessing we won't.

Bear targets
- need to see VIX break into the 19s..and then 20. If 20 can be hit, it should offer yet another chance to break the recent 21 high, and then hit 24 later in the week.
- if market can break lower to around 1365 or so, that would break and confirm the bear flag on the daily cycle, and should lead to 1340/25 in the very near term.

Good wishes for Monday trading.

Dollar - where next?

With over 2 hours until the futures wheel spins up, lets have a quick look at the dollar.


Dollar, daily, rainbow (Elder impulse)

Daily cycle is certainly not bullish yet, although the range in price is getting tighter and tighter, kinda feels like its getting wound up, before a big move.



Dollar, weekly, 2yr

Weekly is arguably bullish, and we have a potential baby bullish pennant that is due to break one way..or the other, real soon. From a MACD cycle perspective, we are very much more likely to break higher than lower, first major target would be DXY'83 level. A break under 78' would certainly be very bearish, and would likely help commodities - and the wider equity market to have a further wave higher.


Dollar, monthly, 15yr historic

A rare appearance from this chart. Without question the dollar continues to weaken across the years and decades. Since the US Federal reserve appeared some 99 years ago, its lost around 97/98% of its purchasing power. Good work Fed!

The MACD cycle on the monthly has been flat for 3 months now, and for those doomer bears looking for lower commodity/equity prices, this IS a real problem. If the dollar begins a significant new wave lower - and can break the ascending trend line (blue) - currently 76', then we may be seeing something really serious beginning in the currency world. A break below 70....and its all over. We are a good 10% from that critical level though, so...no need to be too concerned about that..yet.


The Dollar, the cleanest of the dirty paper out there?

So, in the near term, maybe as far out as a year or two, the dollar is arguably the 'better' of the paper. However, only a move above DXY'90/92 would get me bullish on the dollar. I have seen a few chartists and economists over the last few years tout DXY'100, some even higher. Regardless, the long term decline in purchasing power of paper money is assured whilst we have both fractional banking and periodic bouts of QE.

That reminds me of Gold and Silver...but that's for another place :)

yours...
   awaiting the wheel at 5pm'EST