Dollar, daily, rainbow (Elder impulse)
Daily cycle is certainly not bullish yet, although the range in price is getting tighter and tighter, kinda feels like its getting wound up, before a big move.
Dollar, weekly, 2yr
Weekly is arguably bullish, and we have a potential baby bullish pennant that is due to break one way..or the other, real soon. From a MACD cycle perspective, we are very much more likely to break higher than lower, first major target would be DXY'83 level. A break under 78' would certainly be very bearish, and would likely help commodities - and the wider equity market to have a further wave higher.
Dollar, monthly, 15yr historic
A rare appearance from this chart. Without question the dollar continues to weaken across the years and decades. Since the US Federal reserve appeared some 99 years ago, its lost around 97/98% of its purchasing power. Good work Fed!
The MACD cycle on the monthly has been flat for 3 months now, and for those doomer bears looking for lower commodity/equity prices, this IS a real problem. If the dollar begins a significant new wave lower - and can break the ascending trend line (blue) - currently 76', then we may be seeing something really serious beginning in the currency world. A break below 70....and its all over. We are a good 10% from that critical level though, so...no need to be too concerned about that..yet.
The Dollar, the cleanest of the dirty paper out there?
So, in the near term, maybe as far out as a year or two, the dollar is arguably the 'better' of the paper. However, only a move above DXY'90/92 would get me bullish on the dollar. I have seen a few chartists and economists over the last few years tout DXY'100, some even higher. Regardless, the long term decline in purchasing power of paper money is assured whilst we have both fractional banking and periodic bouts of QE.
That reminds me of Gold and Silver...but that's for another place :)
yours...
awaiting the wheel at 5pm'EST