10am Update - morning chop

They sure are battling it out this morning. The bulls thought they had broken above the bear flag in overnight trading...but no...we open weak.

There is no reason to believe we won't be at least moderately lower by the close. Sure there could be some choppy action, but overall...I'm looking for low 1370s later today.

Sp'60min

They are trying to break back above the 10MA on the hourly at 1387/88. Considering the mood, it won't be easy for them to hold this level beyond 11am.


Bear stops!

Only a move over 1400/05 would have me concerned, and as noted last night, anyone with serious money should have equivalent stops at 1410/15. What matters is that the bear flags on the daily charts are absolutely clear as crystal...we ARE in a bearish formation.

First target remains 1340, although I'm increasingly starting to believe 1300 is maybe even more likely - considering the state of the weekly/monthly cycles.

We have opex tomorrow of course, so...the bigger moves are more likely next week.

More later!

8.30am Pre-market Brief

Good morning

Spanish IBEX 7k...FAILED to hold

see: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=INDI.MC

So, 2000pts lower...yet to come. That's around 30%..and the same could arguably be said for Italy, perhaps even UK and Germany....and the US ?
-

Looks like market was up almost 1% at one point overnight, but we sure did fall away....

Jobless data ...lousy..386k.  Where are those green shoots?


I'm looking for SP' to close -15/17 today, something in that level, it should confirm that we'll be falling into next week. The issue is whether we get stuck at 1340...or keep on going.



Good wishes for Thursday trading!

Daily Cycles...on the edge

A good end to the day for the bears, but as they say...we're not out of the woods yet. We have bear flags everywhere, but we need to see them confirmed with clear breaks. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow or even Friday, but it'd sure have to be in the first few days of next week.

Any bear who is heavy-short with 'serious' money would be wise to have a last ditch stop of at least equivalent to sp'1410/15. Anything above that, and the near/mid term bearish outlooks all get violated.


IWM, daily, rainbow

Nasdaq comp, daily, rainbow

Dow, daily

VIX, daily

Summary

We're at a decisive junction. After a pretty strong 2 day rally, today was a good minor victory for the bears, yet its not enough.

Bears must break the market lower, Sp'1356 will confirm the original wave'1 and 2' theory., and that we are in a '3 wave. Meanwhile, the VIX needs to break >21..and that should then rise to 24 within a few days.

Thursday will be most interesting.

Goodnight from London