No Fear

There is no fear in this market. None. I suppose some would say that is the sign of a market top, but hey...the 'no fear' stage can last months..as we've already seen a number of times in the last 3 years.

Despite today's afternoon market decline, the VIX closed barely up.

VIX, rainbow chart, daily, near term

Baring a major move lower, it does not look like VIX is going to go much above 17.or 18 by Thursday. By then of course the cycle will arguably be complete, and that sets up for another wave lower for the VIX starting next Monday.


VIX weekly - momentum still crawling back up

A lot of posters out there do point out the giant wedge that the VIX is displaying, but still...the 'floor' could last many months..easily into the June/July period which is where my index highs (SP'1550) would be.

Until VIX breaks above 20...any moves are unreliable, and to be treated as minor..and completely irrelevant noise.

Goodnight

Tuesday Weekly Update

Alrighty...lets check those weekly cycles

IWM weekly..

IWM remains really still stuck under the important 86 level. In the next wave up..it will be paramount for IWM to catch a real surge and decisively break through this level. A break over 86..should open up 90/92 (at least). The Fib' level suggest...105 - which right now of course, seems impossibly out of reach.

Near term, IWM really should not break under the 81 level. 82 might be as low as we go - today's closing hour rebound may support that idea.

What is clear, a break under 80, opens up 76..and a whole lot of trouble for the still upward trend in the monthly cycle.


SP' weekly

SP'500...still a straight up move. Even a move to the 10MA at 1370 would really not do any real damage to the ultimate bullish target of 1550.


Dow, weekly

The lower channel line is probably drawn a bit tight. It should probably include the 13,000 level. So, I'd say only a move under 13k tomorrow or Thursday would be a problem for the bullish case.


Summary

Today was interesting to watch, but still..its all minor moves. There really haven't been any major down days occurring yet. I'm guessing - especially if you look at the IWM chart, its all just a giant inverse H/S formation, and we'll explode upward starting next Monday. If that's the case of course, then the bears who are getting mildly hysterical will be furious, dismayed..and again, see their positions wiped away.

I intend to go long no later than the Thursday close. Its certainly not a risk-free trade, across a 3 day Easter-bunny weekend, but if the 60min cycle is really low...I'll play it Long. Until the bigger cycles turn lower, the default trade (at the base of every 60min cycle) remains Long.

More later...perhaps.

Initial closing brief

Hey people..

well that was quite an interesting post FOMC bit of action...

IWM finally snapped lower, but the closing hour saw a little rebound. I've added a few possible channel lines - maybe we're in an expanding wedge, with a lower channel as low as 80.00 by Thursday

IWM 60min

The 60min momentum could easily crawl lower all of Wednesday.

Provisionally speaking, this last hour up seems like a fake-out, looking for new lows tomorrow, probably at least down to 82.00
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*to be clear, I still think this is just another cruel tease to the bears, with major up moves next Monday onward.

more later!