IWM - Bullish into the summer

Good morning. Here is something to begin your opex Friday....

IWM - weekly cycle, bullish outlook

This is similar to the SP' chart I've posted a few times lately, the 'p3 ain't even started yet' theory. Without question, we have a bull flag being confirmed, and a move to 85/87 within the next few weeks looks comfortably viable.


The Swans are not being allowed to land

Despite all the Black Swans circling (and there are a LOT of them)..none of them are currently permitted to land by the Bernanke. I kinda picture him with a ground to air missile battery, and he is very much still in control.  Occasionally he'll fire off a few missiles, take out any of those Swans that are looking to land.

IWM targets:
near term: a break above the recent high of 83 - 84/85 confirms the bull flag

1-3 month target: 90-92.

It looks like the ultimate psy' level of 100' will not be reached..unless we see the market go parabolic - in the style of the 1999/ early 2000 tech bubble.

Good wishes for Friday.
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UPDATE: 11.25am EST

Exited IWM puts earlier, am now long via iwm Calls

Yeah, the Permabear is now Long. A very difficult few buttons to press, but its my 'best guess'.

It could easily be the sign of a top (often is), but..the weekly chart says UP UP UP, at least to test 86 within a few weeks. I've done all I can.

more later...

Bond Market - some interesting developments

I wasn't planning on another post today, but I thought this was worth noting. There is something going on in the Bond Market. Even Clown channel noted it a few days ago.


Tbill Yields - monthly cycle (10yr view)

The last time we saw such a severe rise in yields was late Summer 2010, and the bears should remember what that period marked - an equity market low, before one of the most painful (around 30%) melt ups in history.

Just look at the MACD (green bar) cycle, we are due to go positive cycle most probably in May. That would be when the more significant 'snap higher' would occur. I suppose it is possible the cycle could fail to break back above the 0 line - just as it did in 2008, but such an outcome would be highly unusual.


What does this all mean though?

The Bond Market is really something I am not very familiar with. However, historically speaking, if Bond prices lower (with yields higher)..then Equities.... higher. Its usually that simple.

So..right now...this chart is suggesting that the main market will be higher in April, and that May offers even more intense higher moves.

This Sp' monthly chart would make sense then...

It would certainly match up with the Bond market chart, and suggest that the main indexes will make a challenge to the all time price highs sometime within 2-4 months.

If that outlook is correct, then the bears presently holding short will get washed away, long before any distant 'black swan/doom wave' even begins to unfold.

Goodnight (again)

Relentless Low-Vol' Melt-Up...Continues

Urghh, another day that was not only dull, but it was another dose of pain for the few bears that remain.

Sp'weekly....unquestioningly..strong

The uptrend continues - although momentum is very slowly reducing (at current rate, will take 2-4 months to go negative cycle).


Transports, daily - yesterday was a small tease for the bears

There had seemed a slim possibility that the small move yesterday was the start of something. Clearly, today's action was very bullish. The next target remains making a new high in the 5500s.


VIX - daily....churning in the 15s

Nothing much can be gleaned right now from the VIX. The cycle momentum looks possibly flooring, but it could just as easily churn in the low teens for weeks to come..even months. Only a break over 19 would suggest anything remotely bearish for the main indexes is possible.


Awaiting the weekend

Well, the only marginally interesting aspect today was AAPl. $600...but closing at 585. Dare I note, but Cramer on clown channel made a good point. If you just divide the price by 10, and look at it that way, the move from 35 to 60 is really not that extreme. We have indeed seen plenty of stocks over the years double and triple up in months. Considering the PE (12/13), AAPL could indeed hit $1000 - and still only be 'average value' compared to rest of the market.

OPEX Friday, not expecting anything other than a repeat of today.

*Ohh, and one note on the 'doom chatter' out there. Much of it is valid, in the arguments they make about possible black swans - whether an Iranian conflict, or a EU implosion, yet as the last few days have again shown....the market can simply ignore the threat of any of it,...for a very very long time.

Goodnight