sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened moderately higher, and built gains into the early afternoon, with a new cycle high of sp'2904. The afternoon saw some distinct cooling. Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -2.2% at 15.94. S/t outlook offers a multi-day cooling wave to at least the sp'2800 threshold.
Busy weeks ahead
The mainstream have been looking ahead, with consensus that rate cut'1 will be announced at the FOMC of July 31st. Between now and end July, we have a very busy seven and a half weeks...
Keep in mind, Q2 earnings season will also be well underway ahead of the July 31st FOMC. Right now, Q2 GDP can't be expected to come in any higher than around 1.5-2.0%.
Some are wondering if Print Central will cut rates by 50bps, but this is very unlikely. Instead, we can expect repeated cuts of 25bps. Most accept two or three cuts are probable before end.
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Goodnight from London
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