sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
US equities opened moderately high, and whilst the opening gains were a little shaky, there was very little selling pressure, as the mainstream were very much focused on the LYFT IPO. The afternoon saw a lot of chop, but leaning upward, helped by Kudlow and a light sprinkling of end month/Q1 'window dressing'.
Volatility was naturally subdued, settling in the 13s, and fully reflective of a complacent mainstream.
The Rate Cut
If you've garnered anything from yours truly, I would hope its the notion that a rate cut will (ironically) be the ultimate equity sell signal.
Today saw Kudlow calling for an immediate 50bps cut, whilst Fed official Quarles said further hikes might be necessary.
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| Rate cuts are a bearish sign |
SPX, fed rates, 20yr
We've already had our precursor signal of an end date for QT. Its not a question of if rates are cut... but when. Right now, I'd look to the FOMC of Oct'30th or Dec'11th.
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| Sunset 6.10pm GMT. In two days that will jump to around 7.12pm BST |
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| A Lyft coloured wheel of doom! |
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
Goodnight from London
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